When a golfer who has won five majors decides it’s time to change tours, you have to pay attention. Brooks Koepka’s decision to return to the PGA Tour, with personal and financial penalties, is a signal that perhaps LIV Golf is not as strong a league as they want us to believe.
Brooks Koepka's departure is first shot fired across the bow of LIV
While Koepka has been the second or third biggest star in LIV Golf (no offense, Brooks), his resignation from the upstart league is like a giant flashing sign that says This Way Out. Look for a few others to follow or to at least give it serious consideration. Pat Perez has also announced that he is going to be reinstated.
The biggest star in LIV is still Bryson DeChambeau, and he’s using the opportunity provided by the PGA Tour, the come back by February 2 deal, to see if he can get a better situation, probably more money, out of LIV. Some advice, Bryson, take the deal from the PGA Tour now, because it’s not going to get better, and you aren’t getting younger. DeChambeau is turning 33 this September. Of course, we don’t know what DeChambeau wants and what LIV will offer to keep him.
Who won’t leave LIV and why
Phil Mickelson: Mickelson is going to live or die with LIV, pardon the pun. He was working behind the scenes, trying to recruit players for the new league for many months before they went public. He is currently persona non grata with the PGA Tour in spite of the fact that he’s won 45 PGA Tour events, including six majors, seven if you count The Players. (We do in Ponte Vedra Beach.)
He’s still very popular, though at age 56 this year, he's unlikely to be a competitive force in golf going forward. He did became the oldest to win a major with the PGA Championship in 2021. At this point, he needs LIV to last another three or four years. At that juncture, he’ll be 60, and that’s not a competitive age in sports when the world-beaters are in their 20s and 30s.
Cameron Smith: Smith is an Aussie with likely a special loyalty to fellow Aussie Greg Norman. Norman is now out of the top spot at LIV because he was such a lightning rod for discussions. Why Norman hated the Tour that gave him so much is an unknown, but he did and does. Smith will likely stay with LIV because of his loyalty.
Who is on the fence
Jon Rahm: Rahm is going to be on the fence for a couple of reasons. His agent is (or at least was at the time of this writing) Phil Mickelson’s agent, Steve Loy. Rahm didn’t go to LIV right away, but the influence of Mickelson and Loy won him over. Winning a second major, The Masters, tipped the scales and probably got him a more lucrative offer from LIV. Having Sergio Garcia, another Spaniard, in the LIV fold probably helped to convince him.
Bryson DeChambeau: DeChambeau is the biggest star at LIV. As mentioned, he's probably using the Brooks defection and the offer to return provided by the PGA Tour as a negotiating tool to see if he can get a better deal out of LIV.
DeChambeau is looking 33 in the face. He might have three good years ahead of him, and his last major was in 2024, the U.S. Open, which exempts him into majors through 2029. At that point, he’ll be 38 and looking at the downside of his career. Guys in their late 30s and early 40s don’t win with the same regularity as guys in their late 20s and early 30s. That's except for Vijay Singh, who won nine events in 2004 in a Tiger-esque move, and one of them was a major.
Yes, the biggest draw is still there. That’s Bryson DeChambeau. But he’s currently negotiating his contract with LIV, and nobody knows what that will really mean, despite what’s supposedly said.
We now know that those who want to come back to the PGA Tour may have to pay a hefty fine, although now, the $5 million Koepka paid doesn't seem as big as it did before LIV came along and supposedly started throwing big money around.
While Koepka's defection is not the end of LIV Golf, it's a crack in the facade. It's also a victory for the PGA Tour to have one of its name players return and pay for the privilege of doing so. Those who elect to stay can continue to play in obscurity.