2024 Sony Open cut line prediction: Can Hideki Matsuyama, Aberg make Waialae cut?

Taking a look at the cut line prediction and projection for the 2024 Sony Open. Can the 2022 champion make the weekend?
Hideki Matsuyama - 2024 Sony Open
Hideki Matsuyama - 2024 Sony Open / Michael Reaves/GettyImages

Following the first signature event of the 2024 season last week in Kapalua, the PGA Tour remained in Hawaii for the first full-field event of the season. A field of 144 golfers made the quick trip over to Oahu for the 2024 Sony Open.

An event that has historically seen its champions produce birdies in bunches, for one day at least, saw scores held in check during Thursday's opening round of the 2024 championship as winds whipped around Waialae Country Club throughout the first round.

Less than half of the field managed to post totals in red numbers through eighteen holes of action and of those who did, it was Australian Cameron Davis (-8) who set the early pace. Davis went on a torrid stretch to end his round which saw him birdie five of the last six holes to put the finishing touches on an outstanding round.

The 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic winner's late flourish saw him surpass Taylor Montgomery who had held the top spot for the majority of the day following an opening 6-under 64.

A group of thirteen or so players got off to a fast start at this year's Sony Open and sit in a great position heading into the second round. For others, they will be aiming just to make the weekend as the first cut of the year will be made following 36 holes of action.

Players including Tyrrell Hatton (E), Hideki Matsuyama (E), Ludvig Aberg (E), Sahith Theegala (+2), and others will hope to be on the right side of the Top 65 and ties who get to stick around for all four days in Honolulu.

With the majority of the field having already completed their first round at this year's Sony Open and some big names potentially hovering around the projected cut line, let's take a look at what the first cut mark of the new season may land on when Friday's second round draws to a close.

Projected 2024 Sony Open cut line at Waialae Country Club

With a handful of players still to complete their first round on Friday and the majority of the second-round action set to get underway early on, Data Golf is currently projecting a cutline of -2 at a 38.4% chance.

Current projections give the likelihood of the cut falling back to -1 a 35.5% chance while the mark moving to -3 is only being given around a 13% chance of coming to fruition.

A projected cutline of -2 would be good news for players like Billy Horschel, Zach Johnson, Keegan Bradley, and Justin Rose, who all find themselves either currently on the projected number or right above it.

2024 Sony Open Top 10 Power Rankings. light. Next. 2024 Sony Open Top 10 Power Rankings

Meanwhile, the projected mark would leave players such as Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg, Sahith Theegala, and others still with work to do to keep any hopes of sticking around for all four days alive.