3M Open cut line prediction 2024: Playoff hopefuls in danger of having bubble burst

Time is running out for FedEx Cup Playoff hopefuls to secure their spot in this year's postseason. With all four majors officially in the books, the race for the FedEx Cup is on and for some, that race begins at this week's 3M Open as those on the bubble look to keep their season alive just a little bit longer. This year's 3M Open in the Land of 10,000 Lakes represents the penultimate opportunity for players to work their way onto the right side of the bubble with the Top 70 players in this year's FedEx Cup standings in three weeks advancing through to the first leg of the playoffs.

The field of 156 who made the journey to Blaine, Minnesota, this week knew that they would need to capitalize on their birdie opportunities and avoid the lurking danger around TPC Twin Cities if they wanted to not only make the cut, but contend at a tournament that has witnessed winning scores in the mid to high teens in recent years. Early indications were that the 2024 edition would follow suit and while some got off to blistering starts, others floundered.

24-year-old rookie, Jacob Bridgeman, set the early pace during the first round of this year's 3M Open following a scintillating opening round of 8-under 63 at TPC Twin Cities. A win this week would catapult Bridgeman onto the right side of the Top 70 playoff bubble. While Bridgeman and a host of others got off to the perfect start this week in Minnesota, a plethora of other playoff hopefuls have plenty left to be done just to sitck around for the weekend at the 2024 3M Open.

The first step to keeping their FedEx Cup hopes alive will be to make the cut in the season's penultimate full-field event. But what exactly will the cut number at this year's 3M Open be? Let's take a look at the latest projections and examine which playoff hopefuls could be in danger of having their bubble burst this week in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Historic 3M Open cut line: Last 5 cut lines at TPC Twin Cities

Before diving into the projected cut line for this year's 3M Open, let's take a look at the previous cut lines at TPC Twin Cities in recent years.

With 2022 being the exception, the cut line at the 3M Open has settled on a mark under par in four of its previous five editions. There is a high likelihood that the 2024 playing of the 3M Open will follow suit, with the majority of the field averaging nearly half a stroke under par during the first round at TPC Twin Cities.

2024 3M Open cut line prediction

With the majority of the field having already completed their first round at this year's 3M Open, Data Golf is projecting a cut line of -2 and giving it around a 40% chance of coming to fruition with the Top 65 players and ties advancing through to the weekend at TPC Twin Cities. As things currently stand, a cut line of -2 would match the inaugural edition of the 3M Open in 2019 and would mark just the third time in six events that the mark has officially been a couple of strokes under par. Meanwhile, the projected number moving to -3 is being given a 34% probability, while the mark falling back to -1 is only being given around a 15% chance of being the number despite that being the cut line at the 3M Open on two of the previous five occasions.

Playoff hopefuls on the cut line at the 2024 3M Open

While Bridgeman is projected to make a big jump onto the right side of the playoff bubble with a win at this week's 3M Open, others are in danger of seeing their playoff hopes all but dashed this week in Minnesota. Amongst them, last year's champion at TPC Twin Cities, Lee Hodges, who struggled out of the gate with an opening 2-over 73. A result that would currently drop the defending champion three spots in this year's FedEx Cup standings and six off the pace of the Top 70.

Last year's winner of the 3M Open will need to conjure up something special in order to make the cut this year in Minnesota and keep his playoff hopes alive heading into the regular season's final event at the Wyndham Championship in two weeks' time.

2024 Charles Schwab Challenge winner, Davis Riley, could also find himself on the outside looking in as things currently stand. Riley came into this year's 3M Open as the last man in the projected playoff picture at number 70, but after opening with a 1-under 70 at TPC Twin Cities, the two-time PGA Tour winner could find himself in danger of missing out on the weekend; a result that would drop Riley four spots and leave him on the outside looking in as things currently stand.

While both Lee Hodges and Davis Riley would currently find themselves on the wrong side of a -2 cut line, 2019 Honda Classic winner, Keith Mitchell, would be safely through to the weekend at this year's 3M Open as things stand after posting an opening 3-under 68 on Thursday. After entering the week at 76 and on the outside of the playoff picture, the 32-year-old would currently be well-positioned to improve his playoff chances after securing a weekend tee time at TPC Twin Cities.

Of course, there is still plenty of time for all of this to change, but with the regular season drawing to a close all three playoff hopefuls need to take advantage of the limited opportunities remaining if they hope to secure a spot in this year's postseason. That starts with making the cut this week at the 3M Open.