Masters cut line prediction 2024: Can Jon Rahm, Matsuyama, Spieth make cut?

Jon Rahm - The Masters
Jon Rahm - The Masters / Andrew Redington/GettyImages

The 88th playing of the Masters Tournament commenced on Thursday at the prestigious Augusta National Golf Club following a weather delay that had pushed back the early starters in the morning hours. Thankfully, the entirety of the 89-man field competing in the first major championship of the year were able to begin their tournament on day one.

Following the delayed start, Bryson DeChambeau opened his front nine with three consecutive birdies before absolutely torching the back nine to the tune of a 5-under 31. The 2020 U.S. Open champion, with recently approved 3-D printed irons in his bag this week, signed for a phenomenal 7-under 65. The stunning start at this year's Masters was the best of the round, albeit with a handful of players still to complete their opening round early on Friday.

2022 Masters champion Scottie Scheffler ensured that he was well-positioned behind leader DeChambeau following another terrific round by the World No. 1. Scheffler recorded six birdies to open his Masters with a bogey-free 6-under 66.

Others including, 2016 Masters champion Danny Willett, Ryan Fox, Cameron Davis, Corey Conners, Byeong Hun An, Joaquin Niemann, and Will Zalatoris got off to fast starts at this year's Masters. While a handful of others were well-positioned to add their names to the mix with a few holes remaining in their opening rounds.

Unfortunately, players including defending Masters champion, Jon Rahm, got off to less-than-ideal starts on day one. The Spaniard got off to a great start on his opening nine birdieing three of the holes on Augusta National's opening nine. But unlike DeChambeau and Scheffler, failed to carry that momentum down the closing stretch dropping shots on 10, 14, 17, and 18.

Rahm will go into his second round hovering around the cut line while others have significantly more ground to make up as they jockey to make the 2024 Masters cut. What exactly will this year's cut land on, though? Let's take a look at the Masters cut line prediction and see if Rahm and others might see the weekend at the season's first major.

Masters format and historic cut line at Augusta National

Following the completion of 36 holes at the 88th Masters, the Top 50 players and ties will advance through to the weekend at Augusta National.

Similar to a few of the signature events on the PGA Tour this season, the Masters used to implement 'the within ten strokes of lead' rule, meaning any player who found themselves within ten shots of the lead at the halfway point would also make the cut, regardless of their positioning on the leaderboard,
however, that rule was amended at the Masters in 2020.

Here is a look at the last five editions of the Masters and what the cut line has been on each occasion.

Year of Tournament

Official Cut Line

2023 Masters


2022 Masters


2021 Masters


2020 Masters


2019 Masters


The Masters: 2024 cut line prediction at Augusta National

With the majority of the first round at the 88th Masters Tournament officially in the books, Data Golf is projecting a cut line of +3 and giving it around a 37% chance of coming to fruition. As things stand, a cut line of +3 would mark the fourth time that has happened in the last six editions of the Masters, including last year when Jon Rahm went on to claim the famous Green Jacket.

The cut line moving north to +2 is being given about a 32% probability, only marginally less than the current projected number. Meanwhile, the number falling back to +4 is given about a 15% chance.

A cut line of +3 would currently give defending champion Jon Rahm a marginal cushion, with little room for error, however, following his opening round of 73 at this year's Masters.

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Meanwhile, others including Hideki Matsuyama and Rickie Fowler, have work to do if they hope to stick around for the weekend at the year's first major. While, Jordan Spieth, albeit with a significant portion of his first round still to be completed, could also find himself in danger of flirting with the cut line after finding himself at +2 through 11 completed holes.

Of course, thankfully for those players and their fans, there is still plenty of golf left to be played before a cut is made at the 88th playing of the Masters.