Numerous contenders still have great chance to win British Open

Only four shots separate the 10. That’s nothing when they are playing a golf course with more obstacles than Jumanji. So let’s take a look at likely candidates.  

Leading is Billy Horschel who won the FedExCup in 2014. To win it, he had to hold off Rory McIlroy and Jim Furyk and make a putt for $10 million. That was before ridiculously big money got involved in golf. Horschel is at 4-under par.

Immediately following Horschel, at 3-under par, are Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele. Just to refresh memories, Rose and Schauffele have both won majors and Olympic gold medals. They are tied at 3-under with Sam Burns, Russell Henley, Daniel Brown, and Thriston Lawrence. You’re forgiven if you don’t know the last two. They are newer to leaderboards anywhere, and while they could win the Claret Jug, it’s less likely that they will. 

One more shot back, at 2-under, is twice Masters champ, twice Players champ, and winner of four other tournaments this season, Scottie Scheffler. He’s followed by Shane Lowry, British Open champ in 2019, at 1-under, former Masters champ Adam Scott, and twice PGA champ Justin Thomas at even par.

In other words, this collection truly defines crowded leaderboard.

How do we separate these British Open contenders?

Billy Horschel grew up in Florida and went to the University of Florida. Florida is known for being windy. It’s also known for hurricanes. Usually, the kind of stuff that was at the British Open only shows up in Florida during a tropical storm or a nor’easter and everybody has the good sense to stay inside. But the good golfers know how to play in the wind. Horschel’s chances are good, and like everyone in contention, it would mean the world to him.    

Justin Rose grew up in England which is probably third in the list of awful golf weather places after Scotland and Ireland, who are tied for first in great golf countries. (You really can’t consider Greenland, Iceland, and such.) Rose is a smart player and has all the shots. He’s a great candidate to get his second major.

Xander Schauffele is an aberration in all this bad weather. He grew up in Southern California which is known for an absence of weather. The only reason he’s great in these conditions is that he must hit every shot right in the middle of the clubface. Hitting the center of the clubface is what Fred Couples once told me was his key to playing well in the wind. Never ignore what these guys say about playing golf. They aren’t kidding.

It honestly looked like Shane Lowry had it won until he started to go sideways toward the end of the back nine on Saturday. The man knows how to hit wind-cheating shots. He grew up playing in the kind of weather that was at the British Open this week. You have to like his chances. He just needs to get his confidence back up after that mediocre finish on Saturday.

Adam Scott’s swing is a thing of beauty, but usually he hits a high ball, and that’s what makes his position on the leaderboard unexpected. However, he grew up playing all the great courses in Australia and many of them feature wind, undulating greens, and interesting bunkering. 

Justin Thomas has all the shots, but sometimes they go on vacation for a few months. He has lived in Kentucky, Alabama, and Florida, so he has seen a variety of grasses and playing conditions. He’s probably played in all weather, maybe even snow. He’s now living in South Florida and gets all the wind training he needs. He can hit those low-flighted screamers that pierce the wind. Certainly, Thomas would like to join the three major club.

Sam Burns was born the year Tiger Woods turned pro, and no matter what anyone says, his most impressive victory has to be beating his good pal Scottie Scheffler a couple seasons ago at the Charles Schwab Invitational. It’s a hard course for guys who can’t manage the direction of golf balls because it’s narrow and angled. 

The rest of the group don’t have enough of a strong track record in majors at this juncture to be measurable. They need some near misses to be considered, and they don’t have those.   

All in all, it’s going to come down to a few basic things. It’s going to be about wind.

As Nick Faldo used to say, the wind changes direction when the tide changes, so somebody needs to find a tide table to know when that is. 

It’s going to be about luck of the bounce. Everybody saw the rude bounces golf balls got at Royal Troon. Plenty of golfers were Royally Screwed by bad bounces is what they were. That’s not going to change.

Because of the wind and the luck factor, the winner might not think he’s winning when he finishes.  That means it might be someone who finishes just before an Armageddon-type rain and wind event suddenly blows in and ruins the last hour of play for those who are still on the course.   

Picking this year’s Champion Golfer of the Year is not like a year when Tiger Woods won majors by more than 10 shots. Luck is going to have a really big say in it.