US Open cut line prediction 2024: Will Tiger Woods make Pinehurst cut?

What will the cut line be at the 2024 US Open and can Tiger Woods make the weekend?
Tiger Woods and Caddie Lance Bennett - 2024 US Open
Tiger Woods and Caddie Lance Bennett - 2024 US Open / Alex Slitz/GettyImages

Carnage. That is what comes to mind when thinking about a US Open. The third major championship of the year has historically been one of the most difficult cuts to make as the game's best vie for glory at America's national championship every summer.

This year, the Open returned to a familiar locale for a fourth time, the iconic Pinehurst No.2, one of the nation's most revered locales. Naturally, ten years on from Pinehurst No.2's last US Open, golf fans were dialed in to see who, if anyone, could follow in Martin Kaymer's footsteps and get off to a fast start.

Two players set the early pace on day one and in the process remarkably matched Kaymer's opening tally from a decade ago. Both Patrick Cantlay, a multiple winner on tour looking for his first major, and Rory McIlroy, the adored star looking to end a decade-long winless drought on the game's biggest stage, came out firing with matching 5-under 65s on Donald Ross's daunting design. Many others struggled even to break par at the 124th US Open, making the two leader's accomplishments only more impressive.

With the difficult conditions at Pinehurst No. 2 this week showing no signs of letting up any time soon, those hoping to stick around for the weekend at the year's third major were likely to have their work cut out for them. That left golf fans wondering what Tiger Woods and others would need to do to make this year's cut after rough starts at this year's US Open.

Let's take a look at the latest projections to find out what might be required by several fan favorites during the second round at Pinehurst to make the cut.

US Open cut line prediction: What will the cut line be at Pinehurst No.2?

Update: 7:20 p.m. ET The cut line for the 124th US Open will land on +5, one shot back of the initial cut line projection heading into the second round of play.

With the first round of the 124th US Open officially in the books, the cut line is projected to be +4 this week at Pinehurst No. 2 come the end of play on Friday. Data Golf is projecting a +4 cut line and giving that number around a 40% chance of coming to fruition with the Top 60 players and ties after 36 holes advancing to play the weekend at this year's US Open. With scoring conditions only likely to get more difficult, the projected cut line falling back to +5 is being given about a 20% probability, while the cut moving to +3 appears increasingly unlikely.

Historic cut line: Last 5 cut lines at the US Open

Here is a look at the last five editions of the US Open and what the cut line has been on each occasion at different venues.

Year of Tournament


Official Cut Line

2023 US Open

Los Angeles Country Club


2022 US Open

The Country Club


2021 US Open

Torrey Pines


2020 US Open

Winged Foot


2019 US Open

Pebble Beach


A year after Los Angeles Country Club produced one of the lowest cuts in US Open history, the 124th edition looks likely to match the 2021 US Open cut line at Torrey Pines or perhaps even flirt with the brutal number that Winged Foot produced in 2020. Either way, Pinehurst appears on track to produce one of the higher cuts the major championship has seen in the last five years.

2024 US Open cut: Tiger Woods and other big names in danger of missing cut

With the projected US Open cut line hovering around +4 and +5, several big names are in danger of potentially missing out on a tee time this weekend at Pinehurst. As things stand, a +4 cut would see players including Tiger Woods, who opened his US Open with a 4-over 74, narrowly make the cut. 2019 Open Champion Shane Lowry, 2020 Masters Champion Dustin Johnson, and 2011 PGA Champion Keegan Bradley, would also be safely through to the weekend.

All four players, however, have little margin for error and have work to do to comfortably ensure they are around for the weekend. Meanwhile, notables including Will Zalatoris and Webb Simpson, to name a few, have even more work to do to secure a weekend tee time at this year's US Open.

Then there are players including Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, and Phil Mickelson who will need a minor miracle in order to stick around for another couple of days at Pinehurst after disastrous starts to their US Opens in 2024.

Update: 7:20 p.m. ET As expected, scoring conditions during the second round of this year's US Open proved increasingly difficult and as a result, some big names won't be sticking around for the weekend at Pinehurst. Notables to miss the cut at the 124th US Open include: Will Zalatoris (+8), Webb Simpson (+8), Jason Day (+8), Tiger Woods (+7), Viktor Hovland (+6), Max Homa (+6), Justin Rose (+6), Dustin Johnson (+9), Justin Thomas (+11), and Phil Mickelson (+15).

Next. 2024 US Open power rankings. 124th US Open power rankings. light