The announcement everyone has been waiting for has arrived: Scottie Scheffler will start his 2026 PGA Tour season just under two weeks from now at The American Express.
But after the three-course event at PGA West’s Pete Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club, where is Scheffler likely to play in 2026? It may honestly come down to what tournaments he can take off, especially at the beginning of the year, because at the start of the West Coast Swing, they are all good ones.
After The American Express, the PGA Tour schedule features the Farmers Insurance Open, the WM Phoenix, the AT&T Pebble Beach, and The Genesis Invitational. The last two are Signature Events which no one wants to skip.
However, the greens at Pebble Beach and the rest of the courses on the Monterey Peninsula are typically bumpy, especially for afternoon groupings. At that time of day, they are like putting on little broccoli florets. Those who grew up on poa annua, like Mark O’Meara and Phil Mickelson, seemed to have had the most success on them.
However, the bigger issue is that no PGA Tour golfer wants to play five tournaments in a row. Three is ideal for most of them. The first one gets them back into the swing of things and tells them where their games are. The second one typically features better play than the first. The third one is where a victory is most likely to occur. That’s unless you are Tiger Woods, who used to be able to just show up and win. Will Scheffler be that way, too? We just don’t know. And surely, no one is going to just lie down and let him win anything.
When picking where to play, it may come down to weather, particularly with California now in what looks like a rainy-build-the-ark period.
It may be a schedule of playing two, resting one, and playing two. That would leave WM Phoenix as the short straw.
The trouble with skipping WM Phoenix, should he decide to do so, is that Scheffler has won that event twice, and players like to return to places where they have had success. Just look at all those tournaments where Tiger Woods has multiple victories, like the Arnold Palmer, Farmers Insurance, The Memorial, whatever the tournament at Doral was called at the time, whatever the tournament at Firestone CC was called at the time, whatever the BMW Championship was called at the time, never mind The Masters, where Woods has five victories.
Just as there were courses where Woods found success, there are going to be courses where Scheffler finds success and wants to play time and time again. He may like the grass, the greens, the shape of the holes, where it falls on the schedule. Whatever the reason, some tournaments become player favorites.
After the West Coast decision, there’s the Florida Swing decision. Cognizant is likely to be a pass because the two that follow are the Arnold Palmer and The Players, both of which he has won twice. See them as locks, unless there’s another cooking accident or a baby delivery that hasn’t yet announced.
The Valspar and Texas Children’s Houston Open are next up, and it’s likely that Scheffler skips Valspar and goes to Texas or skips both to focus on The Masters.
Then he has another hard decision. The Heritage, which Scheffler has won in the past, is another Signature Event. The rule at this point in the season is that if it’s not in Texas and it’s not a Signature Event, it’s more likely that Scheffler will take a break that week because The Masters is approaching.
After The Heritage, there’s the team event, the Zurich Classic in New Orleans. Maybe his friend Sam Burns will get Scheffler to play. That’s a TBD.
However, it’s more likely to be skipped because of what follows, that being the Cadillac Championship at Doral, which is another Signature Event), the Truist Championship, also a Signature Event), and the PGA Championship, which will be at Aronimink in the Philadelphia suburbs. Scheffler, of course, will be the defending champ, and it wouldn't hurt to win another, right?
Then there’s a Texas major for Scheffler, The CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He’s the defending champ there, too. He is playing at home. He gets to sleep in his own bed. That one’s a lock.
Scheffler’s successes are beginning to make it hard for him, schedule-wise, because players want to play tournaments they've won, and he’s won so many.
After the Byron Nelson, there is the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth. However, he’ll probably skip it to prepare for the Memorial (Signature Event), where he is the two-time defending champion. The question there is, will he be able to three-peat? It would be a tough ask, but not impossible.
Then he faces some more hard choices, schedule-wise. After the Memorial are the Canadian Open, the U.S. Open, and the Travelers (also a Signature Event).
Last year, Scheffler finished sixth at the Travelers. He skipped Canada and then went on to the Scottish Open to sort of acclimate to the British Isles. It paid off when he won the following week at the British Open. Chalk up another major for the world No. 1.
He took some time off at that point and rested up for the final three big FedEx Cup events. Unless something unusual happens, look for him to follow this plan for 2026.
Scheffler’s last three tournaments in 2025 were okay, but he looked like he ran out of gas by the conclusion of the Tour Championship. He wasn’t alone. Two of those weeks were played in brutally hot and humid weather, which was enough to fry anybody’s brain, making for less than perfect golf.
After the Tour Championship, like many golfers who were on the Ryder Cup team, he played the Procore, and he won it. Will he do the same this year for Presidents Cup? We will have to wait and see what the fall brings in 2026.
The curtain came down on Scheffler’s 2026 golf year with the Hero World Challenge, and doubtless it will happen again, that is, if Woods invites him to play, which he most certainly will.
In 2025, Scottie Scheffler won six tournaments, two of them majors, one of them a FedEx Fall event. He was unsurprisingly once again voted PGA Tour Player of the Year. The 2025 award was for the fourth consecutive time. Not bad for a year that started with a hand injury from cutting pasta with a wine glass.