Coming into this 2025 edition of The Masters, many expected players going out on Thursday morning to have a little bit of an advantage over those with later tee times due to rainy conditions earlier in the week.
But that's not exactly how things played out during the first round at Augusta National.
Instead, conditions proved to be equally challenging in both the morning and afternoon and after one round, it was Justin Rose who emerged from the later wave with an early advantage at the first major of the year, firing a 7-under 65.
With more weather expected overnight, those who got off to slow starts early on day one could face an uphill climb just to make the cut at this year's Masters.
The good news for those scrambling for a weekend tee time is the unique cut rules that come into play at the year's first major.
While The Masters has gotten rid of the 10-shot rule with its reduced field, a higher percentage of players will make it safely through to the weekend here than in any other major this season, as the top 50 players and ties in the 95-man field following two rounds of play will extend their stay at one of the sport's greatest events.
What will the cut be at The Masters in 2025, and whose dreams of winning the coveted green jacket could be dashed before they even begin? One could probably go ahead and put Nick Dunlap in the latter category after his opening-round 90.
Let's take a look at some historic Masters cut lines before we take a look at some predictions for this 89th edition.
The Masters: Historic cut lines at Augusta National
As mentioned, the top 50 players and ties will make the cut at this year's Masters. Here is a look at some of the recent cut lines at Augusta National.
Year | Cut Line |
|---|---|
2024 | +6 |
2023 | +3 |
2022 | +4 |
2021 | +3 |
*2020 | E |
2019 | +3 |
2018 | +5 |
2017 | +6 |
2016 | +6 |
2015 | +2 |
As golf fans and players alike might expect at a major championship, seldom does a cut line not settle over par.
Looking back at the last 10 years at The Masters, only once has the cut line not been over par, that being at the 2020 edition, which was played in November.
Incredibly, three times over the last decade, the cut has been a whopping 6-over. With some overnight rain and wind affecting the course, there is a good chance this year's edition features a similar cut to what has been seen over the last 10 years.
The Masters cut line projection: What will the cut be in 2025?
For what would be the fourth time since the 2019 Masters, the year's first major is on course to produce a 3-over par cut line, with Data Golf giving the number just under a 40% chance of coming to fruition.
This would mark the third time in the last five Masters this has happened and would continue a growing trend that has seen every odd-numbered year since 2019 featuring a 3-over par cut.
Of course, with less than a 40% chance and the potential for increasingly difficult scoring conditions on day two of The Masters, that number could very easily shift to 4-over or higher before it's all said and done.
As things stand, +4 is being given a greater chance of being the mark than the cut moving back to +2, with probabilities of around 29% and 18%, respectively.
Will Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson and others make the cut at The Masters?
A 3-over par cut line could leave a few high-profile players, including Adam Scott, Billy Horschel, Russell Henley, and others in precarious positions after disappointing starts.
Of course, the good news is they still have a chance to improve their standing ahead of the 36-hole cut, and as previously mentioned, the cut line could still shift in their favor.
Meanwhile, players including Phil Mickelson, Jon Rahm, and others would make the cut on the number should the projections hold, with little room for error, however.