Sony Open in Hawaii Expert Picks

The opening event of the PGA Tour season was an absolute birdie fest. Max Homa put it best when he tweeted out “The year is 2025 and 67’s are officially not good." Hideki Matsuyama epitomized that, ruining our Collin Morikawa future. We are not going to dwell on the past. Instead, we'll adopt a new year, new me sort of mentality. So, let’s shift our focus to the Sony Open.

It is another great field again minus the world number one Scottie Scheffler who just had surgery. The Sony Open features players like Matsuyama, Corey Conners, and Keegan Bradley. We are going to take a deep dive into the second Hawaiian course featured this year, as well as who we like to get out to a hot start, or continue their hot start, in the 2025 season.

The Course – Waialae Country Club 

We are coming off a birdie fest at Kapalua, and while this event will also have some lower scores, we should not see anything near what happened last week. The last couple of years have resulted in wins just shy of -20, so shooting six or seven under would be a great round at Waialae. Certainly, a shorter track than last week, looking at 7044 yards, a Par 70 at this one. Just the two par five’s on this course, the 506-yard ninth hole, and the 551-yard final hole. Four par three’s are featured here, with the 204-yard fourth hole being the longest on the course. 

So what should you be valuing on this shorter course from the pros? With previous winners here including Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, and Cameron Smith, ball striking and putting will be at a premium this week. We are targeting people who find the fairways often and find the green from the short stuff. You cannot control who’s putter is hot week-to-week, but you can target players who will put themselves in a position to make said putts. That is our plan this week, so here are the players we like at Waialae Country Club. 

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2025 Golf betting record: 1-3-0 for -0.50 Units (Follow Us On Betstamp@CompetitiveHedge)

Sony Open Picks For Winner, Top 5 & Top 20

Winner Pick For The Sony Open (0.1 Units): J.T. Poston +4000

The three-time tour winner has been playing some great golf recently so we think he could be due for another breakthrough this week. He is in the top forty in greens in regulation and top thirty in putting average and one-putt percentage. He finished sixth here in 2024 and tied for 21st in 2023, so a solid record here. We are going for a bit of a longer-shot winner as Poston has the 15th-best odds, but we think this is a great value for someone who has proven he can beat the very best in the sport.

Top 5 Pick For The Sony Open (0.4 Units): Hideki Matsuyama +240 

Last week's winner was just so great that it would be a crime to not have him featured somewhere on our card. Winners at the Sentry have historically gone on to play well the week after, so we think Hideki could have another great week here. He is not only a previous winner of this event but has been great at strokes gained approaching the green in seasons past. The X factor with Matsuyama is always his putter as he was 121st on tour last year in strokes gained putting. But with how he rolled it at Kapalua, I think he will finish near the top of the leaderboard. 

Top 20 Pick For The Sony Open (0.5 Units): Keegan Bradley +135

Bradley came up just short last year, losing in a playoff to Grayson Murray. Keegan was also one of those players who played well at the Sentry last week, just not on Hideki’s level. He finished T-15th at -21, so I have faith he can come in and make plenty of birdies. The seven-time tour winner was 16th in strokes gained approaching the green and 25th in total putting last year, so we like his abilities to elevate his game here and finish strong. This is our favorite value of the week, we hope this year’s Ryder Cup captain has a strong showing here.

Top 20 Pick For The Sony Open (0.5 Units): Luke Clanton +170

If you are a YouTube golf watcher and support Good Good, you are very familiar with Clanton. Not only has he been featured there, but in the last six months or so Clanton has shown his ability to compete with the very best. Luke makes a ton of birdies and even has the same odds of winning the event outright as Poston. In his eight tour events, Clanton has three top fives and four top tens. He is one of our favorite up-and-coming talents and we like the 21-year-old to play well in Hawaii.