The American Express Expert Picks

Another week of limited losses for us to open up 2025. Shout out to Ryder Cup captain Keegan Bradley for a great performance in Hawaii. Now we shift our focus to an event that is a rarity on the PGA Tour, one which features three golf courses. This means a whole new challenge of betting this week, looking for players whose game translates to all three. We will take a quick look at all of the courses, before giving you our picks for this week.

The Course – Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club & PGA West

So as I mentioned above, three courses are being featured this week. The first is the Pete Dye Stadium Course, which is a Par 72, just over 7200 yards. Some challenging par threes, but a few gettable par fives make this one an intriguing course to watch. The second, La Quinta Country Club, is again a Par 72, listed at 7060 yards. This is a course where you can do some damage, as all the par fives are listed under 550 yards. The final course, PGA West, is just over 7100 yards, another Par 72. Like La Quinta, par fives are very gettable and not too challenging for par threes. What we have seen over the years, is winning scores in the high minus twenties. Par five scoring and birdies per round are certainly stats to target this week.

All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

2025 Golf betting record: 2-6-0 for -0.82 Units (Follow Us On Betstamp@CompetitiveHedge)

The American Express Picks For Winner, Top 10, Top 20 & 72 Hole H2H

Winner Pick For The American Express (0.1 Units): Tom Hoge +5000

Tom Hoge is not exactly a household name, but a solid tour player who has been consistent. Hoge has won on tour before and the 35-year-old is up to 63rd in the official world golf rankings. He was 45th last week, but prior to that, he had two top tens and a top twenty in three events. Hoge is a really good putter, who is top fifteen on tour in proximity and scores well on the par fives. At this value of 50/1, we like his chances of getting his second career win this week.

Top 10 Pick For The American Express (0.4 Units): Justin Thomas +165

One of the favorites this week is Justin Thomas, and we completely understand why. The guy was T3 here last year and was not playing nearly as well as he is now. The fifteen-time tour winner is back on the cusp of being a top twenty player in the world golf rankings. Thomas continues to be one of the best ball strikers in the world, and putts well historically as well. I think the brand-new dad is in for a big week here.

Top 20 Pick For The American Express (0.5 Units): Cameron Young +175

One of my favorite young players on tour, I like what I have seen from Cameron Young recently. He was top ten at the Sentry, carding a -23 over the four days, and continues to be a top-twenty player on tour in strokes gained total. He is a top-five putter on tour, along with having the ability to make birdies in bunches. This is my favorite play of the week, especially at the +175 number.

72 Hole H2H For The American Express (0.5 Units): Will Zalatoris Over Brian Harman

I promise I will not be watching any Brian Harman this week, as his waggling will put you to sleep. That being said, I also think he will struggle this week out in California and Will Zalatoris will not. Will has been stacking some solid results recently, finishing inside the top-thirty in three straight events, including a T18 finish at the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Harman on the other hand, was nearly last at the Sentry, before putting up a T21 last week at the Sony Open. This is a course to me that sets up for Zalatoris much better, so I love the value here.