During the opening round at Oakmont a little over a week ago, J.J. Spaun shot a 4-under 66 to take the 18-hole lead at the U.S. Open, ultimately finishing 1-under for the week to capture his first major championship. So, how did he drop three shots over his final 54 holes and still walk away with the trophy?
Something similar happened last year at Pinehurst when Rory McIlroy shot 5-under in Thursday’s first round, and finished with that exact 5-under total after four rounds, taking solo second behind Bryson DeChambeau.
Have you ever noticed that in most years, the first-round leader’s score at the U.S. Open in relation to par is within one to three shots of the eventual winning score? Since 2000, there have only been eight of 26 editions where this was not the case.
My club hosted a State Amateur Championship a few years ago. It was the second time hosting the event, having previously hosted it in the 1980s. In the days leading up, the majority of the longtime members speculated on the four-round winning score.
I speculated 14-under. Another professional guessed 19-under. The members scoffed and scoffed at our responses. “Our greens are tough to read,” and “Our course is sneaky tough,” and “It’s hard to make birdies from the back tees,” and other opinions abound. The senior-most member insisted he would “take even-par 288 for four days.”
“Why did y’all set the course up so easily?” was the most common question asked between when the first-round leader shot 65 and the eventual winner tapped in for a closing bogey to shoot 18-under 270. Of course, “we” did not do anything to the course; it was set up and run by the State Golf Association.
During breaks in the action, the club’s Professional Staff and the State Association would have discussion on the general philosophy of setting up a course for a tournament.
They explained that they toe a line between having a course that reasonably challenges the players and one that is not too extreme, so that players do not reasonably appreciate the challenge. The logic made sense: If the course was viewed as too easy, the host club’s members might feel embarrassed or have egg on their face, which could lead to the event not being invited back. If the setup is beyond the reasonable skill of the players, players might be less inclined to enter future events.
Most PGA Tour events are played at the same courses year after year, and when the PGA Tour picks hole locations and places the tee markers, it has a history to pull from. For example, they could look at what were easy or hard locations, temperatures, scoring averages, wind direction and speed, dry/wet conditions, etc., to get a reasonable idea of what results to expect.
The PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, The Open Championship, and the occasional fill-in course (like Philadelphia Cricket Club) have some degree of guesswork in their setups. Why? In addition to the players, the host venue offers an unknown to the tournament setup.
Did you find the setup last month at Quail Hollow to be about right? That could be the PGA of America copied the PGA Tour’s homework with its setups for the Truist Championship.
Sometimes the setup is about right, and the event plays out like the PGA Championship at Oak Hill in 2023, with 9-under winning. But sometimes, the event plays out like the 2017 U.S. Open at Erin Hills with 16-under winning. And of course, sometimes 7-over wins like it did in the 1974 U.S. Open at Winged Foot.
I stage a junior event played each December at my club in the Southeast. The weather is typically cold and sometimes wet (though I consider myself lucky in its six-year history), but I try my best to give players the best opportunity to shoot low scores. I also strive for a setup that a spectating college coach can notice the test the player was given and how they performed.
I am usually nervous when players begin their first rounds, as I would like to see at least some red numbers. A few years ago, I felt the scores were a shot or two higher than I would have liked.
As a result, for the next day’s setup, I adjusted two holes to play as more of a drive and pitch with a slightly more difficult hole location. The logic was that players were more likely to have a ball kept in play off the tee, on the green in regulation, but still had to work some for their birdies.
I have done other things through the years both in that event and in other events for the members. I have tucked hole locations into a more difficult corners of greens, moved a tee back, moved a tee forward, easier hole locations, and other tactics.
One year, during the Club Championship, due to concerns about beating darkness due to a weather delay, I nudged a few hole locations a few steps closer to where players walk off the greens. Why? To save a few extra steps and seconds. It worked, and we beat sunset.
It helps that I have worked at the club for several years and have gotten to know how each hole plays. If I would attempt any such setups at another club, I might find myself guessing some.
When the USGA or PGA of America set up the U.S Open and PGA Championship, respectively, they are hoping that whatever they decide for Thursday’s setup is about right. Whether it is or not, they have a baseline for what kind of course conditions and challenges they have in their venue. For Friday and the weekend, they can add some teeth or back off some to get the scores to be what they are looking for.
Sometimes, though, there really is not much that can be done.
The 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla just could not find the challenge the PGA of America searched for. I wrote more about this here, but the PGA Tour has annually struggled to pack a punch at its season-opening event at Kapalua. The club where I work redid its greens last summer, and, as a result, the junior event I spoke of had higher than usual scores in the 2024 edition.
In my mind, while exceptions certainly exist, when the setup challenge is unknown, the PGA of America and the PGA Championship lean toward the players, while the USGA and the U.S. Open lean toward the club and the difficulty of the course.
Had the course been too difficult early on, the USGA could have trimmed the rough, moved a tee or two forward, or moved a few hole locations to slightly more accessible locations.