Race to Dubai: Tommy Fleetwood must hold off Rose, Garcia for win

Tommy Fleetwood has a commanding lead headed into the DP World Tour Championship. Can Justin Rose or Sergio Garcia put some pressure on the leader?

Tommy Fleetwood might be about to collect the biggest honor of his career at this week’s DP World Tour Championship with the chance to win the Race to Dubai. The points earned by European Tour players this season keep everybody but Justin Rose, second place in the Race to Dubai rankings, and Sergio Garcia, third in the rankings, on the outside looking in.

To demonstrate Fleetwood’s lead, even Jon Rahm, who is in 4^th place, cannot overtake Fleetwood with a victory at the DP World Tour Challenge. If he wins this week, he will come up 162,480 points shy of Fleetwood’s point total starting the week. Even if Fleetwood finishes in last place, he would still be ahead of Rahm if Rahm won the tournament.

Rising star Tyrrell Hatton, now in fifth, is also out of luck.

Justin Rose has the best shot if Fleetwood falters at all. If Rose wins, Fleetwood cannot take the Race to Dubai. Rose wins it.

There are several ways that Rose could win by not finishing first, but it would rely on Fleetwood finishing down in the points total. Rose can win if he finishes second so long as Fleetwood finishes third or worse. But there’s more.

Rose can win with a third if Fleetwood finishes eighth or worse. Rose has a shot with a fourth place finish if Fleetwood finishes worse than 17^th, and if Garcia does not win. In fact, he can win with a fifth-place finish if Fleetwood is 43^rd or worse. Rose cannot win if he finishes sixth or lower.

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Rose’s deficit to Fleetwood is 256,737 points. So as long as he stays closer to Fleetwood than that number, he can win the Race to Dubai, even if he doesn’t win the tournament.

Garcia has fewer paths to victory. He has to win and, according to the points list provided by the European Tour, have Fleetwood finish 13^th or worse and have Rose finish fourth or worse. If Garcia finishes second, he can’t win the Race to Dubai.

Without the late-season heroics of Rose and Garcia, Fleetwood could just show up and play four rounds and not worry about where he finished. He would win. But he can’t.

Calculating the scenarios at the DP World Tour Championship

Here are the points for the top finishes in the DP World Tour Challenge, provided by the European Tour:

1^st— 1,175,050

2^nd — 783361

3^rd — 441,350

4^th — 352,516

5^th — 298,933

60^th — 20,622

Here are the top ten in standings and the totals if they win, per the European Tour:

	Current Standings		1st place
1	FLEETWOOD Tommy	4,235,987	1,175,050	5,411,037
2	ROSE Justin	3,979,250	1,175,050	5,154,300
3	GARCIA Sergio	3,184,582	1,175,050	4,359,632
4	RAHM Jon	2,898,457	1,175,050	4,073,507
5	HATTON Tyrrell	2,711,524	1,175,050	3,886,574
6	FISHER Ross	2,540,992	1,175,050	3,716,042
7	CABRERA BELLO Rafa	2,400,948	1,175,050	3,575,998
8	NOREN Alex	2,180,262	1,175,050	3,355,312
9	GRACE Branden	1,972,696	1,175,050	3,147,746
10	MOLINARI Francesco	1,947,067	1,175,050	3,122,117

Here is what happens to the contenders with a second-place finish:

	Current Standings		2nd place
1	FLEETWOOD Tommy	4,235,987	783361	5,019,348
2	ROSE Justin	3,979,250	783361	4,762,611
3	GARCIA Sergio	3,184,582	783361	3,967,943
4	RAHM Jon	2,898,457	783361	3,681,818
5	HATTON Tyrrell	2,711,524	783361	3,494,885

Here is where the top five are if they finish in third:

1	FLEETWOOD Tommy	4,235,987	441,350	4,677,337
2	ROSE Justin	3,979,250	441,350	4,420,600
3	GARCIA Sergio	3,184,582	441,350	3,625,932
4	RAHM Jon	2,898,457	441,350	3,339,807
5	HATTON Tyrrell	2,711,524	441,350	3,152,874

Here is where the top five are if they finish in fourth:


1	FLEETWOOD Tommy	4,235,987	352516	4,588,503
2	ROSE Justin	3,979,250	352516	4,331,766
3	GARCIA Sergio	3,184,582	352516	3,537,098
4	RAHM Jon	2,898,457	352516	3,250,973
5	HATTON Tyrrell	2,711,524	352516	3,064,040

Tommy Fleetwood deserves credit for his incredible achievements

Perhaps, then, rather than being surprised that Fleetwood is leading the Race to Dubai, it’s time we give Tommy Fleetwood his due. He has excelled at every level in golf. He was runner-up to Danny Lee in the 2008 U.S. Amateur. He played in the 2009 Walker Cup and, afterward, he turned professional.

Fleetwood was the youngest player ever to top the European Challenge Tour Rankings when he was 20. He turned pro in 2010 and has just three European Tour victories. His first European Tour victory came in 2013 at the Johnny Walker Championship. His second and third were this year at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and the HNA Open de France. He’s currently ranked 19^th in the world.

Now he stands at the precipice of winning the money title on the European Tour. Only Justin Rose and Sergio Garcia stand in his way.

Next: DP World Tour Championship Power Rankings

Points from 1^st to 60^th with 1 Point = 1 Euro:


	US Dollars	Euro
1	1,333,330	1,175,050.67
2	888,880	783,361.24
3	500,800	441,350.14
4	400,000	352,516.08
5	339,200	298,933.64
6	287,800	253,635.32
7	247,700	218,295.58
8	207,800	183,132.11
9	185,500	163,479.33
10	166,400	146,646.69
11	152,890	134,740.46
12	143,000	126,024.50
13	134,000	118,092.89
14	127,500	112,364.50
15	122,500	107,958.05
16	117,500	103,551.60
17	112,500	99,145.15
18	107,500	94,738.70
19	103,400	91,125.41
20	100,000	88,129.02
21	96,600	85,132.63
22	94,100	82,929.41
23	91,600	80,726.18
24	89,100	78,522.96
25	86,600	76,319.73
26	84,100	74,116.51
27	81,600	71,913.28
28	79,100	69,710.06
29	76,600	67,506.83
30	74,100	65,303.60
31	71,600	63,100.38
32	69,100	60,897.15
33	66,600	58,693.93
34	64,900	57,195.73
35	63,200	55,697.54
36	61,500	54,199.35
37	59,800	52,701.15
38	58,100	51,202.96
39	56,400	49,704.77
40	54,700	48,206.57
41	53,000	46,708.38
42	51,300	45,210.19
43	49,600	43,711.99
44	47,900	42,213.80
45	46,200	40,715.61
46	44,500	39,217.41
47	42,800	37,719.22
48	41,100	36,221.03
49	39,400	34,722.83
50	37,700	33,224.64
51	36,000	31,726.45
52	34,300	30,228.25
53	32,600	28,730.06
54	30,900	27,231.87
55	29,200	25,733.67
56	27,500	24,235.48
57	25,800	22,737.29
58	25,000	22,032.26
59	24,200	21,327.22
60	23,400	20,622.19

( Source: European Tour)

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