U.S. Open: Weather favors early starters on Thursday at Shinnecock

The U.S. Open is hard enough on its own, but the weather and the draw can often play big parts in who gets an early advantage. This week, look for early groups on Thursday to get a potential boost.

There’s a truism in golf. Weather is going to favor some more than others. And at major championships – especially the U.S. Open – getting on the favorable half of the draw can mean the difference between a victory and a loss.

This week, those in the early/ late draw – playing Thursday morning and Friday afternoon – will have the benefit of the soft rains that fell on Long Island Wednesday. That includes Justin Rose, Bubba Watson, Jason Day, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Matt Kuchar, Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Phil Mickelson. However, the wind is supposed to be 20 miles per hour or greater, so no one will have it particularly easy.

"“I hope it’s going to be a big help in the morning,” Rose said referring to the rain on Wednesday and his 7:30 Thursday tee time. “I don’t think the total amount of rainfall is going to be changing the course, changing the nature of this golf course for the week."

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club has a sand base. Its greens are not built like today’s modern courses with layers of gravel topped by sand, then soil, then grass. The Shinnecock greens are more pop-up greens, raised above the ground around them to provide drainage.

Rose did not think the advantage would continue for long, however.

“I think, Friday, Saturday, Sunday with the forecast, by the time we get to Sunday, this is not going to be an issue whatsoever,” he noted.

Top players are prepared for the weather to impact the U.S. Open all week

Still, he likes his position. A difference of two or three strokes from the morning group to the afternoon group in any one day could be the difference maker in the tournament. That was the case the year Ernie Els won the British Open, taking the title from Tiger Woods, partly as a result of the conditions on Saturday.

"“It was some of the toughest conditions I’ve ever seen in an Open Championship,” Els said at the time. “I’ve seen it be calm in the mornings, blow in the afternoons, but I’ve never seen it like this. It was like night and day.”"

Weather affected Jordan Spieth’s performance at the British Open in 2015 when he shot a 75 to put himself behind the eight-ball and ruined his chances to win three majors in the same year, which would have matched the 1953 record set by Ben Hogan.

The British Open, over the years, has typically had more of a difference in weather between morning and afternoon rounds than other golf tournaments, although any tournament can be affected.

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At this year’s U.S. Open, players have seen the wind in different conditions during the week, according to what several of them have said. It will affect the clubs they use off the tee, at least according to Rory McIlroy.

"“Yesterday was actually the first time that I’ve been able to see it in a prevailing southwest wind,” he said in his pre-tournament press conference. “I think with the southwest wind, you’re probably not going to hit as many drivers as you think you would.”"

He said more drivers would be used if the wind shifts to the northeast.

"“Without playing in the southwest wind, up until yesterday, I thought I was going to hit maybe seven or eight drivers out there, and after playing in the prevailing wind, its more like three or four,” he continued."

He intends to play conservatively off the tee because he wants to give himself a good chance to go for the right targets on the greens.

"“The greens are quite large, but they play a lot smaller than they actually are just because of run-offs and the way they are designed,” he said."

Next: Five must-watch pairings on Thursday at the U.S. Open

McIlroy won the U.S. Open at Congressional after rains softened the golf course. Rose won his U.S. Open at Merion, also in softened conditions. Both will have the advantage of a soft golf course and softer greens in Thursday morning play.

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