The Open Championship: What type of player will win at Carnoustie?

The Open Championship, and each course in its rota, is steeped in tremendous history. What can those lessons of the past teach us about who will come out on top this week at Carnoustie?

It’s interesting to see who has won at major championship venues in the past because that often predicts the kind of person who will win next. Crazy you say? How about at Olympic Club? It has a long history of handing the trophy to someone other than the favorite or the third-round leader. Ben Hogan? Lost a U.S. Open to Jack Fleck at Olympic. Arnold Palmer? Lost a U.S. Open to Billy Casper. Tom Watson? Lost to a U.S. Open to Scott Simpson. Payne Stewart? Lost a U.S. Open to Lee Janzen. It’s a course that breaks the hearts of favorites. (And coincidentally my ankle in 2012, so not my favorite forever.)

Oakmont, on the other hand, seems to get it right more often, although in 1962, Arnold Palmer, the favorite at the time, did lose to absolute newcomer Jack Nicklaus. In that instance, Oakmont was the great predictor. It did that a second time with Ernie Els.

Oakmont gave us U.S. Open winners Tommy Armour, Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller, Ernie Els and Dustin Johnson as well as some lesser celebrated golfers like Sam Parks, Jr., Larry Nelson, who actually won four majors in all, and Angel Cabrera, who would then go on to win The Masters showing the U.S. Open wasn’t a fluke after all.

In other words, most of the time, you expect the expected at Oakmont, a winner you are prepared to crown. You expect the unexpected at Olympic.

Carnoustie, like Oakmont, is the kind of course that typically delivers somebody who has won something important already, or will go on to do so, like Tommy Armour (the original), Henry Cotton (a legend in Europe), Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Tom Watson, and in the last two Open Championships, Paul Lawrie and Padraig Harrington.

Paul Lawrie was perhaps the biggest surprise in that list.

However, Tom Watson had only won two PGA Tour events before winning the Open Championship, so, Carnoustie acted as a predictor in his case, just as Oakmont had been for Nicklaus.

Padraig Harrington was coming off being the winner of the Order of Merit in Europe the season before. He may have been a surprise to those who did not follow a lot of European golf at the time, but he was not a surprise to Europeans. He was overdue.

So, following that theory, we are left with choices of candidates who are golfers we know, golfers with good records, golfers who have won other majors or money lists from their tours. And the occasional surprise or prediction of a great future. That’s different from being known for producing the upset winner.

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Tommy Armour had already won a U.S. Open and a PGA before he won The Open in 1931. Henry Cotton’s victory at Carnoustie was his second Open Championship, and he would go on to win a third in 1948.

Ben Hogan won in 1953 in the year that he played in only six tournaments and won five of them.

Gary Player won his second Open Championship at Carnoustie. He won nine majors in all and is one of five golfers to win the career grand slam.

Tom Watson won his first of five Opens at Carnoustie.

Lawrie, most recall, was the Jean Van de Velde hitting into the Barry Burn year.

Harrington would go on to win the Open Championship and the PGA the next year for three majors in all.

So, when it comes time to pick a candidate to win this year’s Open Championship, it’s best to go with someone who has won often, won on his own tour already, someone who has won a major before, or who topped a money list like the Race or Dubai or FedExCup.

We can’t even say, because of Carnoustie’s narrow fairways, that it has to be someone who is a straight driver of the golf ball because Watson was known to drive it all over the lot, like Ballesteros. Watson just had a great short game. His pars were so crazy they called them Watson Pars.

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So, could the winner be Sergio Garcia? Certainly. Patrick Reed? Yes, that has potential. But Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Bubba Watson, Brooks Koepka, Jason Day, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy, Danny Willett, Henrik Stenson, Jimmy Walker and Zach Johnson all fit the bill. Jordan Spieth. Possible, but given his game this year, not probable.

Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods qualify as past champs and past major winners, although the chances of either of them winning the Open Championship, given their ages and state of their current games, is less likely than the others mentioned. Not impossible, but less likely.

One thing is nearly certain: Carnoustie should deliver a winner you know well. Think Hogan, not Fleck. Or it should deliver a next great player. We just don’t know which.

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