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RSM Classic: Deconstructing Charles Howell’s win

By Bill Felber

ST SIMONS ISLAND, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 18: Charles Howell III of the United States shakes hands with Patrick Rodgers of the United States after making his putt on the 18th hole in the second playoff of the final round to win the RSM Classic at the Sea Island Golf Club Seaside Course on November 18, 2018 in St. Simons Island, Georgia. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
ST SIMONS ISLAND, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 18: Charles Howell III of the United States shakes hands with Patrick Rodgers of the United States after making his putt on the 18th hole in the second playoff of the final round to win the RSM Classic at the Sea Island Golf Club Seaside Course on November 18, 2018 in St. Simons Island, Georgia. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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Charles Howell III was in a slump. The veteran used a suddenly improved tee-to-green game and a revved-up putting stroke to win for only the third time in his 19-season career.

When Charles Howell III beat Patrick Rodgers in a playoff to win the RSM Classic, it was his first Tour victory in a dozen seasons and only the third of his 19-season career. How in the world did he do it?

Since the tournament was decided in a playoff, the overly simple answer is: he made a putt that Rodgers didn’t make. But golf tournaments rarely are decided by serendipity; they generally go to the player striking the ball best that particular week. So the question we’re really asking is: What elements of Howell’s game clicked so suddenly into place at Sea Island, Ga., to enable him to even make a run at that playoff, much less win it?

After all, we’re talking about a player who missed the cut only last week at Mayakoba, and who’s had just one Top 10 finish since last May. Yet with his RSM win, Howell finds himself leading the FedEx Cup standings through the fall tour.

Obviously, given the absence of most of the Tour’s stars since the conclusion of the 2018 schedule, Howell’s FedEx Cup status carries an asterisk. At the same time, there’s no asterisk attached to the $1.4 million he’s won in just four starts this season, two-thirds as much as he won in 28 appearances all of last year.

What has suddenly begun to go right in Howell’s game?

At Sea Island, two elements snapped boldly into play. The first was Howell’s mastery of the routine; his ability to hit his approach irons close and give himself a chance.

Since the onset of the Strokes Gained era in 2004, Howell’s average score in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green has been +0.139. In other words, he’s been virtually the consummate average Tour pro at that skill. His average during the 2018 season was +0.220, marginally better but still good for only 67th place among Tour pros.

To illustrate the difference between Charles Howell and he game’s elite at Strokes Gained Approach, the 2018 Tour leader, Tiger Woods, registered +0.938 strokes gained. Put another way, Howell has spotted Woods roughly seven-tenths of a shot per round in their relative abilities approaching the green.

The difference is even more profound than it at first sounds since the correlation between Strokes Gained Approach and scoring average on the 2018 Tour was 69%, the strongest relationship to scoring of any of the Strokes Gained measures.

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Yet in his victory at Sea Island, Charles Howell’s Strokes Gained Approach score was +2.349, more than two strokes per round better than his 2018 average. Such precipitous single-week leaps and fluctuations in statistical measurements are not unusual on Tour. In fact, at the RSM, Howell ranked only 19th in the field for Strokes Gained Approach. But a single-week movement of more than eight strokes per four-round tournament – especially occurring in such a mission-critical task as approaching the green – can certainly elevate even a mid-pack player to contender status.

That’s especially true when that big improvement in Strokes Gained Approach is coupled by a corresponding jump in another major indicator, Strokes Gained Putting. That was the second central element to Howell’s success.

His career average score in Strokes Gained Putting is +0.174, only fractionally above the year-to-year Tour standard of about +0.050. But Howell hasn’t even putted up to his own career average since 2015; his 2018 score of +0.134 ranked 74th on Tour, three-quarters of a stroke per round behind the leader, Jason Day.

Yet at the RSM, he measured +2.151 in Strokes Gained Putting, more than two strokes per round better than his own average. Again, several players did out-putt him as measured by Strokes Gained Putting, among them Rodgers, the man he defeated in the playoff. But Charles Howell’s putting in concert with his approach game provided enough impetus to enable him to keep up with Rodgers and the tournament’s other leaders as play unfolded.

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And once the playoff began, those two elements resurfaced. On both holes, Howell used his advantageous fairway position to gain an advantageous position on the green. Then on the second hole, he applied the putting momentum he had suddenly acquired to seal the outcome. It helped Charles Howell break his 11 year drought, taking home his first win since the 2007 Nissan Open.

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