The non-competitive side of the WGC Mexico Championship

In select-field events such as the WGC Mexico, the field often isn’t nearly as ‘select’ as the event’s image might suggest.

Because the WGC Mexico Championship is part of the World Golf Championship brand, it carries a certain cachet. One of the things you are certain to hear from the TV experts – you heard it this weekend – is that the field is among the deepest, toughest on tour.

At a certain significant level, that’s not only true, it’s indisputable. Forty-six of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings took part this weekend, as did most of the top 30 in the final 2018 Fed Ex Cup standings and most of the top 20 in the European-based Race to Dubai standings.

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WGC events draw their fields based on various criteria. There are a dozen criteria for entry into the WGC Mexico, and they encompass both world rankings as well as accomplishments on numerous European, African , Australian and Asian tours. The champion, Dustin Johnson, qualified by virtue of being the third ranked player in the world. The runner-up, Rory McIlroy, qualified as the eighth ranked player. Paul Casey, Ian Poulter and Kiradech Aphibarnrat, each came in ranked among the world’s top 50 AND also qualified due to their high standing on the European tour or the final FedEx Cup standings.

In short, the top of the WGC Mexico field – the part you see on TV – is hyper-strong.

But there is also a soft underbelly to the WGC Mexico that, while it goes unseen, should not be overlooked. Nor is this soft underbelly unique to this single event; increasingly, as the PGA Tour extends its relationships with other tours, it is becoming a factor in some of the highest-dollar non-major events.

It has to do with players who qualify by dint of rules designed to expand the international profile of the tournaments, but who are non-competitive. Get too many of these players and the result is a non-competitive field.

Matthew Millar qualified for the WGC Mexico by ranking second on the Australasia Tour Order of Merit. Shaun Norris qualified by ranking second among those not already qualified on the Japanese Tour. Once the tournament began, however, Millar and Norris shot 301 and 305 respectively, finishing 38 and 42 strokes behind Johnson.

Sanghyun Park, who qualified by virtue of his rank on the Asian Tour Order of Merit, would have joined them in shooting plus-300 against the field’s 282.7 average, but he withdrew after posting a 227 through three rounds.

An excellent tool to use in judging the competitiveness either of a player relative to a tour field, or of the field as a whole, is standard deviation. That’s because it is a measure of the normal distribution of talent as expressed by the player’s score. On a tour as competitive as the PGA, it is reasonable to expect the field’s scores to be relatively bunched; ergo, it is reasonable to expect the standard deviation of the spread to be low.

The problem is that when the WGC force-feeds players from lesser tours into its events, the performance integrity of the field is compromised.

This is evident at the bottom end of the scoring chart. At the WGC Mexico, both Millar and Norris finished more than a half standard deviation below all other competitors. If this were a first grade class, we’d say they were ”unable to keep up.” Had he finished all four rounds, Park almost certainly would have failed to meet that half standard deviation measure as well. In a select field of just 72 players, having three who show by their performance on the course that they do not belong is unfair to the host of non-qualifiers who would have been more competitive.

This is not just a moral question. For their four days of non-competitiveness, Millar and Norris received checks amounting to $48,500 and $48,250 respectively. At this weekend’s alternate field event, the Puerto Rico Open, that would have been top 20 money.

As noted earlier, the 72 players in the WGC Mexico field qualified by meeting one of a dozen criteria. We can test the strength of those criteria by calculating the average tournament scores for each mode of qualification. Here they are, from strongest to weakest.

Qualifying standard Avg. score

Top 30 final 2018 FedEx Cup points list 279.54
Top 20 final 2018 European Race to Dubai 281.06
Top 50 current Official World Golf Ranking 281.24
Top 10 current FedEx Cup points list 282.29
Top 10 current Race to Dubai 282.30
Top 50 Feb. 11 Official World Golf Ranking 283.69
Highest ranked player from Mexico 284.00
Two Sunshine Tour Order of Merit leaders 286.50
Highest non-qualifiers from OWGR to fill to 72 290.60
Top 2 from final 2018 Asian Tour Order of Merit 292.00
Top 2 from final 2018 Australasia Order of Merit 293.00
Top 2 not exempt from Japan golf tour 294.00

That list makes clear the performance distinction between qualifiers from the U.S./European tours and those from other tours.

If this question of non-competitive entries were limited to one event, it might be viewed as an anomaly, curious but not meaningful. That is not, however, the case…and as with the WGC Mexico it is particularly prevalent at WGC events or those featuring fields designed to appeal to international audiences. Exacerbating the issue is the “select,” meaning no-cut, nature of the fields.

To date during the 2019 season, the PGA Tour has conducted or co-sponsored 17 events counting the two this weekend. Two were WGC events and three others – the CIMB, the CJ Cup and the Mayakoba – were played outside the U.S. Four of the five – all save for the Mayakoba – were select-field, no-cut tournaments. In those five events, eight players posted final four-round scores that were more than a half standard deviation worse than any fellow competitor. In other words, those eight were not competitive.

During the dozen “normal” PGA Tour events, only seven players posted non-competitive scores. Repeat, seven in the 12 regular events versus eight in the five no-cut “world” events.

The second use of standard deviation mentioned above – to calculate the normal spread of the field — underlines the recurring disparity. In a normal PGA Tour event both last season and historically, the normal spread of scores is about five strokes. That is to say, about two-thirds of the field will finish in a five-stroke bunch, the winners and stragglers spreading out in each direction from that pack. The simplest illustration of this is to look at the “majors,” where in 2018 the standard deviations ranged from a low of 4.30 at the PGA to a high of 5.95 at the Masters, with an average of 4.85.

Here, listed in order from most tightly bunched to most loosely bunched, are the standard deviations of the field averages of each PGA Tour event this season. Also listed are the number of non-competitive finishers in each of those fields. As you review this, keep in mind that the lower the number, the more closely bunched – and thus the more competitive—the field. WGC events, no-cut events and events designed to appeal to an audience outside the U.S. are in bold.

Event Standard deviation Non-competitive

AT&T Pebble 3.56 2
RSM 4.01 0
Safeway 4.21 0
Shriners 4.21 1
Desert Classic 4.25 1
Waste Management 4.56 0
Sony 4.48 0
Sanderson Farms 4.83 1
Farmers 5.00 0
Mayakoba 5.09 2
Puerto Rico 5.21 0
Genesis 5.46 0
Sentry TOC 6.25 2
WGC Mexico 6.93 2
CIMB 6.98 1
CJ Cup 7.13 2
WGC HSE 7.87 1

Next. WGC Mexico: Report cards for ten of the top PGA TOUR stars. dark

Here’s the conclusion: When the PGA Tour steps outside its normal boundaries in an (understandable) effort to expand the visibility of its brand, it does so at the price of reducing the competitiveness of its fields. That may be a service to the tour as a whole, but it is a disservice to players who might have occupied the spots taken by the unqualified players.

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The WGC’s non-competitive side

By Bill Felber | Feb 25, 2019

In select-field events such as the WGC Mexico, the field often isn’t nearly as ‘select’ as the event’s image might suggest.

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