Honda Classic: The “Bear Trap” was bested at PGA National

At PGA National this week, competitors navigated it well before they ever approached the 15th hole. Although the Bear Trap is the most famous, it was a different stretch that took top honors for the most difficult.

For some reason not yet determined, golf lore has a particular fondness for three-hole stretches. Whether it’s the closing three at TPC Sawgrass, Amen Corner at Augusta National, or the 7th through 9th along the Pacific at Pebble Beach, fans tend to be especially drawn to danger when it is presented in trilogy fashion. The famous Bear Trap at this week’s Tour stop, PGA National, fits right into that genre.

Maybe it’s the water, which seems abundant in such trilogies and which is omnipresent between the 15th tee and 17th green. The 15th is a 160-yard to 181 yard all-carry par 3, the 16th is a 427 to 443 yard par 4 requiring a drive close to water followed by a 181-yard all-carry approach, and the 17th is another all-carry par 3, this time between 154 and 178 yards.

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Given its location toward the end of the round, the Bear Trap is designed to be – and certainly is advertised as – determinative of the tournament’s outcome. If Dan Hicks said it once this weekend he said it a dozen times, generally in tones befitting a gladiator’s appearance on the floor of the coliseum: “(Players name) is entering the Bear Trap.”

But that three-hole stretch’s reputation begs a question: Is it deserved? Was the Bear Trap truly the point on the course where the outcome of the Honda Classic was settled? Or is the appellation better viewed as a marketing gimmick: useful mostly for drawing eyeballs to the telecast?

There are two ways to test the proposition. The first involves measuring the volatility of three-hole stretches, the second involves measuring their difficulty. When we compare those calculations to the results produced by the tournament’s leaders, we can take a true measure of the Bear Trap. By the way, both tests involve only relatively simple math.

The volatility test is essentially a standard deviation test. It asks this question: For every three-hole spread at PGA National, how wide was the normal range of scores? The wider the spread, the greater the volatility of that trilogy of holes…and, the theory would hold, the more likely that volatility is to influence the tournament’s outcome.

For purposes of reference, the median standard deviation spread of three-hole scores was about eight-tenths of a stroke. In simple terms, if the par for any three-hole stretch was 12.0, about 70 percent of all scores would fall between 11.2 and 12.8 strokes.

It may not surprise those who watched the tournament on TV – and it certainly will delight sponsors – to know that the most volatile three-hole stretch at PGA National this past weekend was the stretch from 16 through 18. The first standard deviation of scores on those three holes – with a combined par of 12 – was +0.958, creating a natural spread of from 11.042 strokes all the way to 12.958 strokes. Nearly 40 percent of all scores made on those three holes was something other than par.

By tournament standards, that is a highly volatile mixture of holes. For the record, the Bear Trap ranked fifth in three-hole volatility with a normal distribution of +0.853.

The problem with merely using those numbers to uphold the reputation of the Bear Trap as a decisive tournament element is that the results don’t support it. Since churn doesn’t always equate to motion, that’s not really surprising.

The champion, Keith Mitchell, played the Bear Trap in three-under this week, and played the 16th through 18th in 2-under. While that’s good, it’s not a winner. Consider that the two veterans who finished one stroke behind Mitchell, Rickie Fowler and Brooks Koepka, played the final three holes in minus 7 and minus 5 respectively this week.

Two other members of the final top 10, Sergio Garcia and Vijay Singh, both played the 16th through 18th better than Mitchell. Lucas Glover and Ryan Palmer, who tied each other for fourth, both equaled Mitchell’s performance through the Bear Trap, and Glover also matched him across the closing three holes.

That confusion sends us to our second test, raw difficulty, in search of an answer. The test asks which three-hole set produced the highest average scores relative to par? And on this test, the Bear Trap comes across as ever so slightly cubbish.

The average combined score for the 15th through 17th holes was 10.33, which is one-third of a stroke above the Bear Trap’s par of 10. For the week, that meant the Bear Trap played only as the fifth toughest three-hole stretch at PGA National.

The four stretches playing tougher relative to par were:

1. Holes 5 through  7, 10.699, +0.699
2. Holes 4 through 6, 11.549, +.549
3. Holes 10 through 12, 12.525, +.525
4. Holes 6 through 8, 11.483, +.483

The 5th through 7th at PGA National played Cinderella all week to its more famous, and more preening back nine step-sister, the Bear Trap.  Like the Bear Trap, is consists of two par 3s and a par 4…although 5, 6 and 7 are uniformly longer and more stern than 15 through 17. Also like the Bear Trap, water threatens every shot.

The difference, obviously, is that the Bear Trap is positioned in the far more glamorous and far more attention-getting location. But this week at least, the front nine stretch was more decisive. Here’s the proof.

In winning the tournament, Mitchell survived that three-hole front 9 stretch in even par, making one birdie, one bogey and 10 pars for the week. Koepka and Fowler, who finished one stroke out of a playoff, each played those same three front nine holes in three over par. Ryan Palmer, who tied for fourth, two behind Mitchell, played 5 through 7 in four over par.

Any of the three more veteran players who trailed Mitchell so closely would have won if they had navigated PGA National’s 5th through 7th with even approximately the same skill level as Mitchell.

This is not to say the Bear Trap was docile. In fact, during Saturday’s third round, it did play as the course’s toughest  three-hole stretch, requiring an average of 10.588 strokes to navigate. Players that day fought their way through the 5th through 7th in an average of 10.312 strokes.

But because that difficulty was limited to Saturday, it’s most likely ascribable to that day’s pin positions, or possibly to especially unfavorable winds in that part of the course.

On all three other tournament days, the 5th through 7th was the most difficult three-hole stretch on the course. The Bear Trap rated as only the eighth most difficult stretch on Thursday, and as merely the 10th most difficult on Friday.  During Sunday’s final round, it ranked fifth in difficulty.

Here’s the bottom line: The Bear Trap is a catchy name and a great marketing phrase. It also identifies three challenging holes. But the Honda Classic was decided on a three-hole stretch the contenders completed long before reaching that part of the course.