Waste Management Phoenix Open: Sleeper Candidates

The rowdiest event on the PGA Tour is here in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Time to look at some sleeper candidates that could make some noise.

This is always the most un-golflike event of the year, at least when you compare it to what a “normal” golf tournament is supposed to be. The Waste Management Phoenix Open will greet around 700K fans this week, plenty of imbibement, and extra gambling.

It makes sense why it happens. The Tour sets it up that way, there are plenty of areas around the course that people set up to party at, and the Super Bowl is also going on, meaning that there are plenty of people going extra hard all week.

We will be looking at those who will be making noise in a different way, or at least those that are hoping to do so. The sleeper candidates who are trying to make their way to the top of the leaderboard at the Phoenix Open.

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Before we get to this week’s picks, let’s check-in and see how the selections did last week at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Jason Kokrak: T-21st (-6): A second round 74 hurt his chances at a top ten finish.

Bud Cauley: MC

Joel Dahmen: T-55th (-1): Started well with a 67. Then a disappointing finish of 73-72-75.

Talor Gooch: T-36th (-4): Couldn’t get into a rhythm, shooting 71-72-72 to start.

Scott Brown: MC

That was not a great week. It does help to see that most of the spots in the top 15 went to bigger names on Tour. Let’s see if we can get back on track, and find some sleeper candidates that will make a run at a win this week at the Phoenix Open. All of these players have odds worse than +5000 (50/1), so that eliminates 20 players from being eligible.

Corey Conners: +6500

HOW!

How is Corey Conners still not getting the respect that he deserves? Other than the first tournament of the year, check out his finishes in the rest of the tournaments this year.

T-13th, T-12th, T-6th, T-20th, T-19th, T-12th

That is six straight top-20 finishes. There aren’t many people who have done that, and he is currently in the midst of an incredible streak of golf. He is 11th in GIR% this season, and you know he is going to be finding himself with plenty of scoring opportunities. If the putter is on, look for Conners to take the win this week. If you want to cover yourself a bit, he is still a scintillating +1200 to finish in the top five.

Billy Horschel: +8000

Although not on a streak like Conners, Horschel has a couple of top tens on his card already this season. After finishing T-6th at the Zozo, he finished T-8th two weeks later at the Mayakoba. A completely out of the ordinary 80 on day three ruined all chances last week, even though he was -7 in his other three rounds. Last year he was money with the putter, finishing 16th in SG. If he finds scoring opportunities, he is going to capitalize at the Phoenix Open.

Kevin Na: +8000

For someone who has already won this year, and has three more top-20 finishes, his odds seem unnaturally low. He is one of the best putters so far this year, ranking 6th in SG through 16 measured rounds, enough that it seems out of the realm of “small sample size”. Last year he was 7th around the green. If that combination of Kevin Na comes out with an average game off the tee, he will easily make the top ten. I like him there this week, where you can get him at +700.

Harold Varner III: +19000

Varner has been crushing it off the tee this year, ranking 12th in distance (310.8) and 8th in SG. It looks like he is trying to take advantage of the bomb and gouge approach that seems so popular on Tour right now. He played well here last year, finishing T-10th. If he can continue to gain a bunch of strokes off of the tee, I like him to repeat last year’s finish. You can still get good odds here, as he is +1700 to finish in the top 10.

Chris Stroud: +32000

A trip back to the Phoenix Open could be just what Chris Stroud needs right now. Coming off of three straight missed cuts, he will look to regain the form that led him to a T-7th place finish last year. Before those MC’s, he finished T-18th at the Mayakoba, where he shot under par every round. I like him to finish in the top 20 again, and you can get that at +600.

Best of luck to everyone at the Waste Management Phoenix Open this week. If you are lucky enough to be there to watch, stay safe and stay smart!