Arnold Palmer Invitational: Sleeper Candidates to make a run

It’s that time of year where we head to Bay Hill and visit the invitational of the King. That’s right, it’s time for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Oh Boy. When it comes to an event named after the King, and at his course no less, you know lots of big names are going to turn out. There is plenty of talent showing up at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week, and it’s going to make it difficult for any of the sleepers to have a chance.

That’s what we are going to try and accomplish this week regardless. A look into some of the sleeper candidates that could make some noise and potentially find themselves at the top of the leaderboard Sunday at the Arnold Palmer.

Let’s check-in to see how last week’s picks did at the Honda Classic.

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Ryan Palmer: T-17th (E)

Lucas Glover: MC (72-73)

Jhonnatan Vegas: T-27th (+2)

Russell Knox: MC (73-72)

Lucas Bjerregaard: MC (73-71)

Oof. What a week. The PGA National Course tore people up all week, which was a nice change of pace to what we normally see. In fact, it was one of the more difficult tournament venues we have seen in quite a while.

We are going to add in a new wrinkle to this going forward, and if anything it’s going to give a better way to track progress on all the sleeper picks throughout the year. Each week, I’ll assign “golf balls” to each pick, along with whatever bet is applicable to them. Good thing this is starting this week instead of last week.

Big/important reminder here. Gambling should only be done in places where it is legal.

Let’s get to the picks. Anyone who is +5000 (50/1) or better is ineligible. The one good thing about so much talent at the Arnold Palmer Invitational is that there are plenty of great choices available in the “sleeper” range. We will be starting with 1000 golf balls and will go from there.

Lee Westwood: +5500

Westwood has been playing some great golf lately. That isn’t the only reason he has been making news though. He was one of the ones who took offense to Paul Azinger’s comments at the Honda Classic.

We will stick to his sleeper candidacy here though. He’s had plenty of top finishes recently, including a T-6th at Gary Players Nedbank Challenge, a T-4th last week at the Honda Classic, and he won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Could he find himself with a fire lit under him after Azinger said the PGA Tour is where it matters? I think so.

The Bet: 50 golfballs to win, 75 golfballs to finish top 10 (+550)

Max Homa: +6500

It cannot be said enough. Go check out Max Homa’s twitter.

Enough fanboy action. In case you didn’t know, Max Homa has been playing some really good golf lately. Not just good, but consistent as well. Check out his last four finishes.

Genesis: T-5th
Pebble: T-14th
Waste Management: T-6th
Phoenix Open: T-9th

He’s been playing well off the tee and on the greens, ranking 50th and 44th in SG, respectively.

This will be his first time playing at the Arnold Palmer, but I don’t think it is going to bother him at all. I like Homa to find another top 10 finish this week.

The Bet: 25 golf balls to win, 50 golf balls to finish top 10 (+900)

Rafa Cabrera Bello: +7000

Bello has the mix that I always look for heading into a tournament. Not only is he playing well lately with a T-16th and a T-17th in his last two events, but he has played well here in the past as well. At last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, he finished in a T-3rd place. That was with a second-round score of 75 as well. Even with all the talent here, I could see him making another run at the top of the leaderboard.

The Bet: 25 golf balls to win, 50 golf balls to finish top 10 (+700)

Francesco Molinari: +9000

Molinari actually won this event last year, not that you would know it from seeing his odds for this year’s edition. He’s played pretty well here over the years as well.

1st: T-26th: T-7th: T-9th: T-17th: T-5th

That’s four top-tens over the last six years. He will be looking to add to that total by becoming the first person since Matt Every in 2014 and 2015 to back-to-back.

The Bet: 15 golf balls to win, 50 golf balls to finish top 10 (+850)

Matt Wallace: +13000

Wallace played here last year for the first time in his career. He was able to finish T-6th, which is actually his second-best finish on the PGA Tour. Like Westwood, Wallace plays mainly on the Euro Tour. That doesn’t detract from the golf skill that he has. I liked the consistency he displayed here last year, shooting each round under par (71-69-69-71). As one of the lower to mid-tiered golfers at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I think Wallace provides a chance for a great value this week.

The Bet: 10 golf balls to win, 50 golf balls to finish top 20 (+550)

Total golf balls bet: 400

Next. Paul Azinger criticizes European Tour… and he has a point. dark

That’ll do it for this week’s edition of sleeper picks. Make sure to stay tuned to Pro Golf Now all week for coverage of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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