The flaw in Bryson DeChambeau’s game: Touch

Bryson DeChambeau is killing it off the tee, but he’s beatable when the game emphasizes finesse

One thing should be clear from the data: the new Bryson DeChambeau remains beatable.

Not as beatable as one year ago, perhaps…but flawed and subject to fall.

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DeChambeau’s victory Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit was certainly imposing. He finished at 23-under 265 to beat Matthew Wolff by three strokes with Kevin Kisner third, two additional strokes back.

In terms of sheer dominance, it was a noteworthy victory. DeChambeau’s score amounted to 3.13 standard deviations better than the field average of 276.42. That’s the most dominant showing since Nick Taylor’s victory at the ATT National at Pebble Beach back in early February.

It’s also the third most dominant of the entire season, exceeded only by Joaquin Nieman’s romp at last fall’s Military Tribute at the Greenbrier.

It’s no secret how DeChambeau won. He averaged 350 yards off the tee at The Golf Club of Detroit. That combined with a sufficiently warm putter made for an unbeatable combo.

Obviously the prodigious driving distances are what catches everybody’s eye

DeChambeau accumulated an event-best 6.672 Strokes Gained Off the Tee during the week, 2.73 standard deviations better than the field. Numerically the closest to  Dechambeau off the tee was Cameron Champ, and he gained a full stroke less from his driving game than DeChambeau.

This driving dominance continued a trend that really took shape around the first of the year, and has only accelerated since. In the four events since the restart, DeChambeau has averaged 2.389 Strokes Gained Off The Tee, a huge mathematical advantage.

The truer trend, however, traces back to the Waste Management over Super Bowl weekend. Prior to that event, for all his mechanical innovation and all his length, DeChambeau was at best a slightly above average driver of the ball. Since the Waste Management, he has been revolutionary.

The chart below shows the year-to-year  change in DeChambeau’s driving game as measured by Strokes Gained Off The Tee. The 2020 data is subdivided by pre-Waste Management and Waste Management-forward events.

Season                                 SG Tee

2017                                       0.398

2018                                       0.586

2019                                       0.421

2020 pre-WM                      1.292

2020 WM-forward             5.361

Since the Waste Management, DeChambeau’s worst showing – as measured by Strokes Gained Off The Tee – has been +2.758 at last week’s Travelers. He tied for sixth. In three events – the Palmer, the Schwab and the Rocket Mortgage – he exceeded +6.00. He finished fourth, third and first in those three.

If driving were all there is to golf, DeChambeau would have discovered the magic formula. But as he demonstrated in Detroit, his game remains flawed…or at least as flawed as it’s possible for a game to be when played at half-wedge distance.

The problem is that all of DeChambeau’s strength work and technical adjustments may have impacted his touch game.  Consider DeChambeau’s historical performance at the recovery game, the subtle yet vital aspect of work around the greens that historically has been a denominator between success and failure on tour. Here’s the same table, looking this time at his Strokes Gained Around The Green.

Season                             SG Around Green

2017                                       0.005

2018                                       0.095

2019                                     -0.016

2020 pre-WM                      1.270

2020-post WM                  -0.196

The new DeChambeau may be an imposing bomber, but he is on course for statistically the worst season of his career from just off the green. And as his driving touch has improved, his chipping and recovery game has receded.

Fortunately for DeChambeau, a two-tenths of a stroke loss in recovery skill sounds like a legitimate price to pay for a 5.4 stroke pickup off the tee. That’s especially the case during those weeks when DeChambeau can avoid paying the price. At the Rocket Mortgage, for instance, he actually  picked up 1.1 strokes on the field  due to his play around the greens.

That showing was, however, the recent exception rather than the rule. At the Waste Management, the Palmer, the Schwab and the RBC Heritage, DeChambeau’s close-in play spotted the field a total of seven  strokes, possibly accounting for his failure to actually win any of those events.

His short game, then, remains an area of weakness, and one which from week to week has the potential to undermine his work across the broad swath of the course. When he overcomes that weakness, as he did in Detroit, the advantage he acquires off the tee becomes too much to overcome.