Four-round scores may make this the most masterful Masters

Sunday appears likely to bring record low four-round scores at the Masters

Through two days, we’re on pace for the most masterful Masters in history. And it’s not especially close

As of the close of play Friday, those expected to make the cut were on pace for an average four-round score of 280.14. That’s 7.86 strokes below the course’s four-round par of 288.

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And if the cutline moves from its overnight even par to 1-under, that pace will intensify to an average of 279.2, 8.8 strokes below par.

Even if Masters officials – or Mother Nature — toughen the course this weekend, it probably will not fully offset the damage to par that has already been done. Scores of those making the cut would have to rise this weekend by an average of about 1.7 strokes per round in order to avoid setting a record for lowest average four-round score relative to par.

That record was set in 2001 when Tiger Woods completed the “Tiger Slam” by winning at 272, 16-under par. The field-wide assault on par led by Woods saw 30 of the 47 players completing four rounds do so under par. The four-round field average that year was 284.64, about 3.36 strokes under par.

Twenty-eight players who project to make the cut had not yet completed their second rounds when play was terminated by darkness Friday night. Still, the projected average 36-hole score of the 60 competitors at the projected cutoff line was just 140.08.

Twenty-one of those players were already at 5-under or lower. When Woods won in 2001, a total of 23 players finished four rounds at -5 or better.

Since 2001, the most fun the field has ever had at Augusta National came last year, when Woods won his first Green Jacket. The four-round field average last year was 285.00.

Here are the 10 lowest four-round field averages in Masters history, with the 2020 pace included.

Season Average

1. 2020 280.14*

2. 2019 285.00

3. 2001 285.00

4. 2011 285.33

5. 2015 285.60

6. 1991 285.75

7. 1992 285.79

8. 2009 285.82

9. 1995 285.91

10. 2018 286.64

11. 1974 287.02

*Projected

Part of the scoring decline is obviously due to natural improvement among the players. Although Augusta National has from time to time attempted to offset advances in club and ball technology as well as training – usually by lengthening the course – those defensive steps only mitigate the human-caused advances; they cannot totally offset it.

That’s true, by the way, for every tournament…not just the Masters.

You can, however, neatly gauge the change in Masters scores, since the tournament is played annually on substantially the same course. For the first 20 playings following its inception in 1934, the four-round field average hovered just under 300. That’s about 10 strokes above par. That average began to decline in the mid 1950s, and in the 1960s reached a degree of maturity at around 290.

Between 1956 and 1990, the four-round field average perennially hung between 288 and 296, only three times escaping that range.

Since 1991, the average hasn’t changed all that much; it’s 289.68 for that 29-year block. It has, however, gotten more volatile, generally on the low side. Ten times in those 29 tournaments, the field average has fallen below 280, as it appears certain to do again in 2020. Six of those 10 times have occurred since 2009.

Next. The Masters 2020: Top 10 Potential First-Time Winners. dark

You can measure volatility by standard deviation; the smaller that number is, the less volatile — which is to say more predictable — the scores. Between 1956 and 1990, the standard deviation of the field average was about 2.64 strokes. Since 1991, that standard deviation has risen by nearly a full stroke, to 3.49.

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The most masterful Masters of all

By Bill Felber | Nov 13, 2020

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