One shot: At LaQuinta, it mattered a lot

On the PGA Tour, as at a Vegas craps table, fortunes can rise and fall on one shot.

The difference is that on Tour, the player actually exercises control over that one shot.

There is no better illustration of the meaning of one shot than the outcome of this weekend’s American Express Championship at LaQuinta.

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Consider six players. Consider the way their fortunes rose or fell based on the outcome of that one shot.

1         Si Woo Kim. Kim came to the 17th hole Sunday in a battle for the lead with Patrick Cantlay. Playing several groups ahead of Kim, Cantlay had run off 11 birdies for a 61 on the par 72 Stadium Course to finish at 22-under and retreated to the chipping green in anticipation of a possible playoff.

Kim went center green on the island putting surface, leaving himself a 19-footer for birdie. With barely a twitch, he drained it to take the lead and held it at 18 to wrap up the one-stroke victory.

Even that one shot may not have saved Kim had he not gotten a huge break on one shot one hole earlier. At the  560 yard par five 16th, Kim’s second flirted breathtakingly with  the cavernous bunker that guard’s the green’s left side. But it soft-landed on the fringe of the green and rolled nowhere, leaving Kim in position to two-putt for his birdie.

2  Patrick Cantlay. With 11 birdies in 18 holes, Cantlay did everything he could do Sunday to enhance his chances at winning. But Saturday – well, one shot on Saturday cost him big time.

Cantlay came to the eighth hole Saturday – his 17th hole of the day — almost as hot as he would be on Sunday. After making the cut on the number, Cantlay had rallied with nine birdies against a single par, shooting up to 12-under and on the fringes of contention.

The eighth at the Stadium Course, Cantlay’s 17th, is a 554-yard par five. The pros look on it as a tough par 4; indeed, it played as the easiest hole on the Stadium Course this weekend. The only legit hazard is a sand trap guarding the front left side of the green.

Cantlay’s drive carried 310 yards but settled into the left rough. But the right side pin placement left him a window to reach and possibly get close in two. Instead he pulled his second shot about 60 yards offline onto some guy’s patio. Once a penalty stroke was factored in, Cantlay found himself with a 28-footer just to save par. He missed it. That six, on the course’s easiest hole, was the stroke that eventually cost  him a shot at a playoff with Kim.

Rather than the $1.2 million first, he had to settle for the $730,300 runner-up check. The $476,000 difference may not have been enough to buy that house, but it sure would have covered the down payment.

3 Tony Finau. Seemingly almost always in contention, Finau did what he generally does at LaQuinta – he came close. In fact, he came to the 11th hole Sunday at 19-under, just one stroke behind Kim.

Beyond that, Finau should have been feeling good. He was four-under for the day, having birdied the difficult par 4 10th having caught Kim.

But at the 600 yard par five 11th, Finau challenged the flag – positioned dangerously near the greenside pond — with his approach. Big mistake. He pulled it and the shot never had a chance, splashing comfortably offshore. Finau dropped, pitched within three feet, then compounded his felony by missing that modified tap in for a killer bogey.

Playing with him, Kim birdied to open a two-stroke advantage. Finau never got closer, settling for fourth place.

4  Rhein Gibson. Money also rides with the non-contenders. Rhein Gibson, a virtually anonymous member of the field, approached the island green 17th Friday merely hoping to make the cut. At four-under, Gibson was right on the projected cut line by then.

On Tour, however, insurance is never a bad thing. Gibson lofted his approach to a safe spot 36 feet from the cup, then calmly rolled that putt home like it was nothing. It turned out to be something. At 18, Gibson missed the green with his approach, chipped within seven feet then missed his par putt.

That 36-foot snake he killed at 17 had kept Gibson in the field. Good thing, too; over the weekend he fashioned rounds of 69 and 71 to come home eight-under in a tie for 40th place. His take for doing so amounted to $25,125. That was one-third of his total winnings in 2020.

5  Maverick McNeely. Like Gibson, McNeely was on the cusp of missing the cut all day Friday. He came to the 195 yard par  3 13th Friday three under, which was one shot short of what he needed.

To compound his challenges, McNeely pushed his tee shot into the rough about eight feet right of the green. From there it would have been all he could do to save par, but McNeely leapfrogged par. He clipped his 51-footer on a path that took it directly into the hole for the saving birdie.

He would play the weekend, and make $13,601 for his effort.

6  Bill Haas. Haas is a former FedEx Cup champion, so nobody’s going to cry crocodile tears when bad luck catches him in the second round of a run-of-the-mill event. Still, the fates were particularly unkind to him at the island green 17th Friday.

At three-under, Haas came there needing a birdie to save his weekend. But his tee shot faded, clipped a rock fronting the green, and popped back into the pond. He walked off the green with a bogey.

Then, just to rub it in, Haas dropped a 45-foot, cross-green putt on the final hole for a highly anticlimactic birdie. Nice, putt anyway. See you next week. Don’t bother looking for a check.

Six players, each of whose fortunes rose or fell on one shot. About $2 million turned on the outcomes of those shots. If you wonder why Touring pros obsess about every stroke, that’s why.