The new Tour star: Jordan Spieth

There’s a new budding star on Tour, and his name is Jordan Spieth.

Yes, in body it’s the same Jordan Spieth who racked up three Major titles between 2015 and 2017. It’s Spieth’s game that has changed.

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Based on the evidence from his back-to-back top five finishes at the Waste Management and the ATT, that game is not only better than at any time during his nearly three-season slump, it’s in several important ways better than Spieth was when he was on the verge of dominating the tour five seasons ago.

His tie for third at Pebble marked Spieth’s best finish in an official PGA Tour event since he tied for third at the 2019 PGA Championship. That was 37 starts ago.

In company with his tie for fourth at the Waste Management, they mark Spieth’s first back-to-back top fives since the 2018 Houston Open and Masters.

He’s accumulated 277.5 FedEx Cup points since arriving in Phoenix. That’s more than he had earned in his previous 21 starts combined.

But if the statistical evidence is to be believed, Spieth hasn’t done it by re-discovering the magic that once led him to the Masters, U.S. and British Open titles.

In some important respects, this is a new and improved version of Spieth. The question now is whether he can lock in the changes he has apparently been working on.

Begin with his approach game. in his heyday, Spieth was generally a solid player with his irons…but there could be ups and downs. In 2017, the year he won the Brit, he led the Tour in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green at .906. But just one season earlier, Spieth’s approach game was average, his .145 SG score ranking just 87th on Tour.

When his performance cratered in 2019 and 2020, faulty approach irons were the primary reason. Spieth fell to 145th and then 92nd in that category.

But at the Waste Management, he led the field in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green, gaining 7.848 strokes on the field via that skill. At Pebble Beach, he ranked 10th at 4.045.

Those changes are mirrored and re-enforced in Greens in Regulation data. Between 2015 and 2018, Spieth’s average rank in GIR was 73rd…on the high side of average. In 2019 and 2020, he fell to 179th and 190th respectively.

But he returned to 20th in GIR at the Waste Management and then 18th at the ATT, noticeable upgrades from his slump, and also from his peak seasons.

In his prime, Spieth was often recognized as possibly the game’s premier putter. In 2015, the season of his Masters and U.S. Open wins, he ranked ninth in Strokes Gained Putting at .571. In 2016 he was second at .758.

Even when his game collapsed in 2019 and 2020, Spieth’s putter did what putters often do – it came and went. Despite a poor 2019, Spieth still ranked second on Tour in Strokes Gained Putting at .862. One year later he fell all the way to 105th with a score of just .005.

Based on the past two weeks, his game shows some of the same putting twists and turns. He ranked 13th in the field at the Waste Management, then slipped to 42nd at the ATT.

The composite portrait provides the best indicator that Spieth is playing like his old self, and maybe even better.

The table below shows Spieth’s average rank in eight measures of Tour success at various points in his career. The eight, which should constitute the broad components of success, are: driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation, scrambling, Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Strokes Gained Approaching the Green, Strokes Gained Around the Green, and Strokes Gained Putting.

                                           Average rank

2015 season                       38.38

2016 season                       54.88

2017 season                       65.75

2018 season                       54.25

2019 season                    107.00

2020 season                    113.50

2021 Waste Mgmt.          33.00

2021 ATT Pro-Am            40.88

Nobody would suggest that it is safe to draw long-term conclusions about a Spieth turnaround based on just two weeks, even if they were good ones. But they were the two best weeks Spieth has had in a long time, and he did string them back-to-back.

Put one or two more such performances together and we may be looking at a new and improved version of a former Tour star.