Dark Horses for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Before I jump into this week’s dark horses, I want to start off with a recap from the WGC-Workday. My three dark horses were Ryan Palmer, Rasmus Hojgaard, and Robert Macintyre. This past week I tried to get to cute and go to different from the pack. Ryan Palmer is the only one that looked good for a couple of days, but completely lost it over the weekend. Hoj and Macintyre played awful from round 1. Definitely a tournament I am happy to move on from after not having a ton of knowledge on it and shooting darts basically. This week has a long history where you can find trends and past finishes.
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This week the PGA tour is heading to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is usually a pretty good field with a great reputation since it is Arnold Palmer’s iconic course. Danny Lee, Keith Mitchell, and Sung Kang were all in the top 10 last time in 2020. I don’t know what their salaries were, but these are usually longshots in most tournaments. These are the so called “dark horses” that you want to look for to come out on top in DraftKings tournaments.
This week I will be providing three dark horses, meaning players that are longshots, but could play really well for their salary. These dark horses are players that are $7,500 and below. Also I only use DraftKings, so these prices will be for their website, but the players can be used on FanDuel as well.
Dark Horse Number 1
Russell Knox: Knox is my first dark horse. He doesn’t have any top 25 finishes in the past three years here, but he is a golfer from Flordia and fits two of the key stats really well. His recent finishes are sub-par, but he did have a seventh place finish at Pebble Beach and a 16th place finish at the American Express. He might go over looked because he doesn’t have any top end finishes here in the past three years, but it is worth a shot at $6,700.
The stats I like for the course
SG Approach: 15th
Green in Regulation %: 2nd
SG Putting: 166th
Birdie or Better %: 129th
Dark Horse Number 2
Luke List: List is my second dark horse. He is also probably my favorite one of the three with his super high upside. His best two finishes here in the past three years are a T10 and a T7. This is usually a course that guys who are accurate and long off the tee, can succeed at. He is not great in the key stat rankings, but it could be worse. He has come 10th, 21st, and 30th in his last four events on tour. Luke is always a risky play because he can easily come out of the gate and be dead in your lineup. He is a great play for a couple lineups if you play multi-entry. I think he is going to have that Keith Mitchell effect like at the Honda Classic where he stormed up the board out of nowhere. Does he win? No. But he will climb up it in my opinion and find that top 10-15 range like 2019 and 2018.
The stats I like for the course
SG Approach: 89th
Green in Regulation %: 41st
SG Putting: 221st
Birdie or Better %: 56th
Dark Horse Number 3
Byeong Hun An: PUNT PLAY! Hun An is my last dark horse. He is also really bad putter. If you cannot putt, you cannot play remotely well in any tournament unless you are just putting the ball in their tight (which he does not do). His best finishes in the past two years at the API are a T10 and T14. That is what has me interested in him. Also a 35th at Puerto Rico and eighth at the American Express. His only good key stat is SG Approach. This does scare me, but he will find a couple lineups based on past results. If he figures out the putting, he is a fine play, but that is if he does. High risk-High reward, meaning either a solid week, or dead lineup out the gate with Byeong Hun An.
The stats I like for the course
SG Approach: 39th
Green in Regulation %: 111th
SG Putting: 231
Birdie or Better %: 125