Jordan Spieth is back and probably to stay

The long-delayed Jordan Spieth bandwagon is preparing to depart the station. Are we all securely back on board?

Spieth certainly appears to be comfortably back in the driver’s seat. His tie for fourth at this weekend’s Arnold Palmer Invitational was his fourth consecutive top 20, three of those landing him inside the top five.

That trend is beginning to look like a true turnaround for Spieth, who hasn’t had three top fives in a season – forget a month – since 2018. The last time he cut this consistent a figure on Tour was back in the summer of 2017. He won the Travelers and the British Open in consecutive starts that June and July, then a month later finished second at the Northern Trust and again at the Dell.

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Is this turnaround real, or is it one of those spring flings that dissipates when the heat of the big events arrives. We may soon find out; the Players is this weekend.

The signs are mixed. Those wishing to go negative on Spieth could find ammo in his Sunday 75 at Bay Hill. Had he shot 70 – challenging given the playing conditions but a score Spieth managed in each of the event’s first three rounds – he would have taken Bryson DeChambeau to a playoff.

At several moments Sunday, Spieth came up less than heroic. He missed a five-foot par save at the third hole, Poor chipping cost him another bogey at eight, and between 10 and 12 he missed three opportunistic birdie putts by a total of 30 inches. Even so Spieth still had an outside shot at the leaders until bogeying three of the final four holes.

At this stage, the biggest consistent obstacle to Spieth’s return to the game’s front ranks remains his driving game. For the second time in this four-tournament stretch, he was forced to overcome a negative Strokes Gained score off the tee in order to contend.

Driving  the ball has never been a Spieth strength. Even between 2015 and 2017 when he was winning those Majors, Spieth was merely OK off the tee. He averaged just 0.40 Strokes Gained Off The Tee in those glory days.

And when his game fell apart between 2018 and 2020, Spieth’s driver created its share of the problem. During those three seasons he gave an average of 0.15 strokes to the field off the tee.

Based on 2021 data, that aspect remains the most questionable part of his arsenal. Through the Palmer, Spieth ranks 181st on Tour at -0.34.

In other aspects, though, the current version of Spieth is looking very much like vintage Spieth…and not a moment too soon given the arrival of the Masters next month.

The comparisons are most apt in Spieth’s traditional strengths, his iron and recovery play.

Since the Waste Management – the four-tournament stretch comprising his 4-3-15-4 run – Spieth has averaged 4.42 Strokes Gained Approaching the Green and 2.09 Strokes Gained Around The Green.  He’s also averaged 2.87 Strokes Gained Putting.

Those performances have lifted Spieth’s 2021 season-long average in the three categories to 0.25, 0.51 and 0.40 respectively. That totals 1.16 strokes and begins to sound more like the Spieth of 2015-17, when he averaged 0.56, 0.37 and 0.55 (total 1.48) in those categories.

Between 2018 and 2020 – the lean seasons – Spieth’s averages in those three categories blew to 0.11, 0.27 and 0.18, a total of 0.56.

Does this make Spieth a legitimate contender at the Players? Yes, actually it should. His driver remains a handicap, and he has yet to demonstrate during this comeback that – having put himself in position to win – he remembers how to do it. But the underlying data suggests that Spieth’s comeback is real.