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Brian Harman and the randomness of match play

By Bill Felber

AUSTIN, TEXAS - MARCH 24: Brian Harman of the United States fist bumps Patrick Cantlay of the United States after their match during the first round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 24, 2021 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images)
AUSTIN, TEXAS - MARCH 24: Brian Harman of the United States fist bumps Patrick Cantlay of the United States after their match during the first round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 24, 2021 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images) /
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Some days it just doesn’t pay to be Brian Harman. Like Wednesday for example.

Harman is a 34-year-old touring pro and part of the PGA Tour’s University of Georgia Alumni Association. Although winless since 2017, he ranks high enough on the World Golf Association list to have received a bid to this week’s Dell Technologies Match Play, where he was the 54th seed.

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Assigned to Group 10 – which also includes Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama and Carlos Ortiz – Harman was borderline brilliant during Wednesday’s opening round play at Austin Country Club. Pitted against Cantlay, the event’s 10th seed, he made eight birdies and effectively shot a 64 on the par 72 layout.

Unfortunately for Harman, Cantlay made six birdies plus an eagle and also claimed one hole on a concession. The result was a 1-up victory that was only sealed when Cantlay slammed home a 15-foot downhill birdie putt on the round’s final hole.

Harman’s round was the quintessence of the randomness that is match play. Taking on one of the world’s best players head-to-head, he had produced the second best round of his Tour season (he had a 63 in January in Hawaii). Yet he had been defeated.

The luck of the draw did Harman in as much as Cantlay. Had he played either Matsuyama or Ortiz Wednesday – and had all parties scored as they actually did – Harman would have polished off Ortiz 2 and 1, and would have breezed home a 4 and 2 victor against Matsuyama.

It gets even worse. Had Harman played literally anybody in the 64-player field other than Cantlay Wednesday, he would not have lost. Based on their relative hole-by-hole performances, he would have beaten every other competitor except two. Ian Poulter and Dylan Fritelli would have tied him.

But the draw threw him against the  one man he could not play evenly or beat Wednesday. As a result, with an 0-1 record in his bracket, Harman now faces the challenge of beating both Matsuyama and Ortiz Thursday and Friday, and hoping one of them can slow down Cantlay. Only that combination would give him a chance to take out Cantlay in a playoff rematch for the right to advance to the elimination phase of play.

Match play is remorseless that way. It doesn’t actually care how you play, except in relation to one pre-determined person.

Abraham Ancer was the antithesis of Harman. Paired against Bernd Wiesberger Wednesday, Ancer offset his only three birdies with three front nine bogeys and was even par for his 16 holes Yet he won 3 & 2 because Wiesberger made four bogeys and conceded a hole.

In medal play terms, Ancer’s performance, which trended toward a one-over 73, was better than only five players in the field. Happily for him, his opponent, Wiesberger happened to be one of them. So Ancer won.

Next. WGC-Match Play: Upsets Rule the Day on Wednesday. dark

Conversely, in medal play terms only three players out-shot Harman Wednesday. But Cantlay happened to be one of the three. So while Ancer and his 73 sit in his bracket’s drivers seat, Harman’s 64 puts him on the brink of elimination.

That’s the fun, if you want to call it that, of match play.

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