The Masters: Dark Horse Contenders Who Can Win the Green Jacket

The Masters returns to early April in 2021, following a one-time move to the fall last year due to COVID-19. This years’ edition is stacking up to be one of the most exciting in history, with the #1 player in the world trying to defend his title while a number of competitors are vying for the coveted green jacket. There is an exhaustive list of contenders – Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy are considered the odds-on favorites behind defending champ Dustin Johnson. Not to be forgotten, Xander Schauffele and Brooks Koepka (both of whom finished tied for 2nd to Tiger Woods in 2019) are 20-1 favorites to win their first green jacket.

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It makes sense this group comprises the favorites to win The Masters – Augusta National typically favors the worlds’ top players. Since Charl Schwartzel won in 2011 as the 28th-ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), no one outside the top-20 has captured the green jacket.

With the top contenders firmly established, I thought it would be fun to look at some potential dark horse contenders. Who outside of the top-20 in the OGWR can break the decade-long streak and join the illustrious group of Masters Champions? To find out the likeliest contenders, I combed through each Masters since 2011 and focused on players who finished in the top-5 despite ranking outside the OGWR top-20. The research yielded some interesting results:

21 players fit the criteria (including Schwartzel).
Those players had a median OGWR of 32.5.
The group generally excelled at two staples of succeeding at Augusta National – making a ton birdies and scoring well on the Par-5’s. Of those on the PGA Tour, the golfers had a median ranking of 24th in birdies made and 22nd in Par-5 scoring average during the season they finished high on the leaderboard.
Contrary to popular belief, The Masters is not all about putting. The group did not consist of great putters but rather fit into two categories: great ball-strikers or those with an elite short game. Those in the top-5 were consistently top-40 on the PGA Tour in either Strokes Gained (SG): Approach or SG: Around the Green.
Experience matters. Only 4 of the 21 golfers finished in the top-5 in their first trip down Magnolia Lane. The last player to win in his first appearance was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.

With all of that being said, it’s time to look at who outside the top-20 in the OWGR has a chance to capture the green jacket. Using the parameters outlined and some subjective analysis, there are three likely candidates:

Scottie Scheffler. The University of Texas product just finished 2nd in the recent WGC Match Play. He won the PGA Tour Rookie of the Year in 2020 and made his first appearance at the Masters last fall, finishing T19. He showcased his elite short-game in Austin, and currently sits at 25th in SG: Around the Green. Scheffler also knows how to go low, as he currently ranks 16th on the PGA Tour in birdie average. His shot-making, creativity, and impressive pedigree makes the 24-year old a strong candidate to breakthrough at Augusta.
Ryan Palmer. This is not a sexy pick by any means but Palmer has been on a tear this season. The 44 year-old Texan has racked up three top-10’s in eleven events this season on the strength of impressive ball-striking, as he ranks 35th in SG: Approach. This will be his first Masters since 2015 but his prowess on Par-5’s and at making birdies (he ranks 4th and 3rd this season, respectively) makes him a serious threat at the Masters. Can the 26th ranked player in the world notch his first major at Augusta? He certainly has a chance.
Cameron Smith. The 32nd-ranked Australian is no stranger to The Masters leaderboard – he finished tied for 2nd last fall, and also placed T5 at the 2018 tournament. Smith, simply put, is a magician with his chipping and scrambling; he nearly chased down Dustin Johnson in November with a dizzying array of up and downs, and he currently ranks 22nd in SG: Around the Green. Only one Australian has won the green jacket – Adam Scott in 2013 – but Smith is positioned to be the second. His past success at Augusta, combined with his status as the #1 player on the PGA Tour at attacking Par-5’s, makes him one of the best bets to challenge for the title.

Outside of these three players, there are two other players outside the top-20 in the OWGR that might factor into the weekend at Augusta:

- Joaquin Niemann. This will be the Chilean’s first trip down Magnolia Lane but he has the game to contend with the worlds’ best. He ranks 7th on the PGA Tour in birdie average this season, 17th in Par-5 scoring and 44th in SG: Approach. If he makes enough putts he is the best candidate this year to capture a green jacket in his first Masters appearance.

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Jordan Spieth. Vegas says Jordan has the 5th-best odds to win so to call him a ‘dark horse’ is disingenuous. He is currently the 53rd ranked player in the world but has been on fire this year, finally finding his game after a prolonged slump. His short-game wizardy and recent ball-striking form make it highly possible for the 2015 Masters Champion to join an exclusive group with multiple green jackets.

Masters week is the best week of the year. I know I am not alone in my excitement for the 2021 version of the historic major, and cannot wait to see if any of these dark horse players can break through and claim the green jacket!

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