Some reputations took a hit at Augusta

The 2021 Masters may eventually do great things for the growth of golf in Japan. But with only a few minor exceptions, it only damaged the career reputations of the game’s current mega-stars.

Hideki Matsuyama, a 10-year pro with a history of hanging around the fringes of major tournament contention, came away with a one-stroke victory over newcomer Will Zalatoris. Matsuyama thus became the first Japanese man to win a recognized Major. (Two Japanese women have done so; Chako Higuchi at the 1977 LPGA and Hinako Shibuno at the 2019 British Open.)

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What followed Matsuyama’s victory was substantial speculation about whether it would speed the growth of the game’s golf footprint in Japan. There is precedent both ways in such speculation. In the late 1990s, Se Ri Pak’s Major accomplishments on the women’s tour set off an avalanche of interest in golf in her home country of Korea that resulted in that nation becoming the women’s game’s dominant power.

On the other hand, the mega-success enjoyed by Tiger Woods at about the same time created only a modest swelling of interest in golf among American minority groups with a mere handful of minority Americans playing today on the PGA Tour.

The impact of Matsuyama’s victory may not be known for years. What is certain is that for most of the game’s stars, Augusta amounted to a failed opportunity to enhance their reputations among the game’s greats.

No fewer than 10 players who competed this weekend came  to Augusta with a chance to either establish themselves among the 200 greatest players in history – as measured by the criteria I outlined in “The Hole Truth” – or enhance their existing reputations.

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Only three did so, only two to a significant extent.

The two who made climbs in their reputations worth mentioning were the champion, Matsuyama, and Jordan Spieth, who tied Xander Schauffele for third. Patrick Reed, who tied for eighth, made a modest move up the all-time chart.

From most productive to most harmful moves, here’s a synopsis of how the Masters results impacted the career and peak reputations of the 10.

Hideki Matsuyama: The standard deviation of Matsuyama’s performance this week was -2.32, meaning that’s by how many standard deviations he beat the four-round field average of 288.65. By Masters standards, that’s a typical winning margin. (A footnote: Had Matsuyama made that par putt on the 18th and won by two instead of one, his standard deviation advantage would have improved to -2.53, which would have been the 14th best in Masters history.  In the game of historical distinctions, little things can mean a lot.)

That -2.32 score improved Matsuyama’s career rating from -2.32 to -4.64, raising his standing on the all-time career list by nine positions, from 137 to 128. Among men only, he moved from 90th to 84th place, jumping ahead of Willie Macfarlane, Rickie Fowler, Craig Wood, Davie Strath, James Foulis and Joe Lloyd.

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Jordan Spieth: His 281, tying for third, translated to -1.66 standard deviations better than the field average.  That reversed, at least temporarily, Spieth’s two-year slide down the career reputations list, which had dropped him into 114th place by the tournament’s start – 75th among men only.

Now sitting at -8.51 for his career, Spieth moves up 12 places – eight on the men-only list. At 67th on that list, he passes Gene Littler, Dutch Harrison, Abe Espinosa, Jason Day, Jimmy Demaret, Young Tom Morris, Bobby Cruickshank and Paul Runyan.

Patrick Reed: The only player in the field to improve both his peak and career reputations, Reed’s tie for eighth at four-under 284 amounted to -1.01 standard deviations better than the field average. That improved his  five-season peak rating from -1.18 to -1.21, lifting him from 164th to 159th among the top 200 for peak performance. He climbed from 106th to 104th counting men only. Reed passed Ian Woosnam and Johnny Bulla.

On the career chart, Reed’s total improved from +10.66 to +9.65, moving him from 185th to 182 overall. Among men only, he climbed from 126th to 123rd, passing Lawson Little and Bruce Devlin.

Bryson DeChambeau: His tie for 46th place brought DeChambeau home at 0.95 standard deviations worse than the field average. He began the week with a career score of 13.50, 191st on the career list (133rd among men only), and held that position on both the overall and men-only lists.

Justin Thomas: Tying for 21st at even par 288, Thomas recorded a score that was -0.14 standard deviations better than the field average. That fundamentally neutral performance anchored Thomas, like DeChambeau, where he began the week: 168th on the all-time career list and 112th among men-only.

Henrik Stenson: With a tie for 38th  at three-over, Stenson scored 0.51 standard deviations higher than the field average. That cost Stenson his 198th place position on the all-time list; he fell out of the top 200. Among men only, Stenson’s career total of +18.75 slipped him two places, from 138th to 140th. He now trails Chick Harbert and Retief Goosen.

Brooks Koepka: His failure to overcome the knee injuries that have plagued him recently cost Koepka any chance to improve his standing on the peak list, and also cost him several places on the career list. By missing he cut, he added 2.90 standard deviations to his career total, leaving it at -14.70. He fell to from 57th to 72nd on the all-time list and from 36th to 41st  among men only. Those passing Koepka were Walter Travis, Tom Watson, Roberto deVicenzo, Peter Thomson, and John Laidlay.

Rory McIlroy: He, too, missed the cut, adding 2.90 to his career score. That score rose from -11.56 to -8.66, costing McIlroy 13 places – from 88th  to 101st – on the all-time reputations list. Among men only, McIlroy fell from 54th to 66th, dropping behind Al Espinosa, Christy O’Connor, Harry Hampton, Willie Fernie, Joe Kirkwood, Tony Lema, George Sargent, Bob Martin,  Old Tom Morris, Jack White, and Olin Dutra.

Jason Day: Day’s missed cut – and the resulting 2.90 addition to his career score – took his career total from -11.24 to -8.34. On the overall list, Day fell 17 spots, from 89th to 106th. Among men only, he fell 16 spots, from 55th to 71st. He dropped behind Harry Hampton, Willie Fernie, Joe Kirkwood, Tony Lema, George Sargent, Bob Martin, Old Tom Morris, Jack White, Olin Dutra, McIlroy, Spieth, Paul Runyan, Bobby Cruickshank, Young Tom Morris, and Jimmy Demaret.

Dustin Johnson: The defending champion also missed the cut, saddling him, too, with a +2.90 addition to his career score. That lifted Johnson’s total from -8.23 to -5.33, costing him 18 spots on the all-time career list and 10 spots – from 72nd to 82nd – among the reputations of men-only. He fell behind Abe Espinosa, Dutch Harrison, Gene Littler, Jamie Anderson, David Brown, Carty Middlecoff, Hugh Kirkaldy, Greg Norman, Horton Smith and Jerome Travers.