2021 AT&T Byron Nelson: Tournament preview and picks

The AT&T Byron Nelson returns this week on the eve of the 103rd PGA Championship. A week after the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship welcomed the return of a champion the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson finds itself a new home at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, for the foreseeable future.

The AT&T Byron Nelson was last played in 2019 as a result of COVID-19 cancelations and it would turn out to be the last time it was held at Trinity Forrest Golf Club which had hosted the event since 2018. Over the course of its history, the event that started back in 1944 has been held at several different courses around the Dallas/Fort Worth area since its inception.

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TPC Craig Ranch is a PAR 72, 7,468 yard, Tom Weiskopf design. The course will be hosting its first PGA event this week and while it is relatively unknown, it has played host to a couple of Korn Ferry Tour/Web.com events in previous years, with the most recent having taken place in 2012.

TPC Craig Ranch should provide players this week with numerous scoring opportunities, and it has both a nice mix of long PAR 4’s and a couple of shorter PAR 4’s that play at 360 yards in length or less. The course features Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens and Rowlett Creek comes into play on 14 of TPC Craig Ranch’s 18 holes.

The 156 man field this week is surprisingly strong for an event taking place a week before the year’s second Major. Even with World number one Dustin Johnson withdrawing on Monday the field for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson still includes six of the top twenty ranked players in the World per the Official World Golf Rankings.

Past AT&T Byron Nelson Winners

2019: Sung Kang (-23)

2018: Aaron Wise (-23)

2017: Billy Horschel (-12)

2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)

2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)

Favorites at the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson

The odds used in this article can be found online at Draftkings sportsbook and are current at the time of the article. Make sure to check what is available locally to you for the best and updated odds.

Johnson’s withdrawal has meant that two names share the honor at the top of the board this week, with both Jon Rahm +800 and Bryson DeChambeau +800 leading the way, while Jordan Spieth +1100 comes in right behind to separate the ‘elite three’ from the rest. Rahm will be looking to bounce back from his first missed cut since last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, while Spieth looks to win another pre-major event after his Valero Texas Open victory prior to the Masters last month.

A host of names close out the 25 and under range this week with all of Daniel Berger +1700, Hideki Matsuyama +2000, Matthew Fitzpatrick +2200, Scottie Scheffler +2200, Will Zalatoris +2200, and Brooks Koepka +2300, closing out the upper-tier.

Seeing Fitzpatrick’s name amongst this group is a bit of a surprise even with him having played some excellent golf so far in 2021. Brooks Koepka will make his first start since Augusta, and just his second since knee surgery this week and it would not come as a big surprise if he came into this week and walked out with a win.

It’s Zalatoris and Scheffler that catch the eye this week though, this would be a great spot to back Zalatoris once more even after the disappointment of last week. Zalatoris lost strokes with his irons for the first time in a while last week, so it would be reasonable to expect that one of the traditional stronger aspects of his game flips back the other way this week in Texas.

It was a tough decision at the top this week, but I’ll side with Scottie Scheffler +2200 in this spot to begin the card for the AT&T Byron Nelson. The Dallas native did not fair to well in his last Texas start, but that was coming on the back end of a lengthy and strong showing at the WGC in Austin the week prior.

Scheffler is an elite ball-striker who can score with the best of them, he is also one of a handful of players with tournament experience at TPC Craig Ranch before as well.

The Mid-Tier this week begins with Sam Burns +3500, and Marc Leishman +3500, who both come in at 35-1. Burns is coming off of his first PGA win two weeks ago at the Valspar and he is joined by Leishman who is also coming off of a win at the Zurich Classic’s team event with Cameron Smith. Leishman also recorded a 7th place finish here as part of a Korn Ferry Tour/Nationwide Tour championship event in 2008.

Harris English +4500, Ryan Palmer +4500, and Si Woo Kim +4500 follow next in this range, before both Sergio Garcia +5000 and Jason Day +5500 close out the middle tier.

Palmer typically plays well in Texas and is an interesting option this week, but with his game seemingly trending in the wrong direction in recent event’s I’ll pass and look further down the board. A new course, and what look’s to be an event that will turn into a scoring fest, lends itself to a wide range of potential winners this week, and for that reason, I’ll bypass names higher up the board and look to take a chance with some players at deeper odds this week.

Doug Ghim +7000 is the next addition this week, a consistent iron player who rates out well in most of the key statistical categories this week. Ghim is not a good putter but I’ll take on that risk this week at the longer number and hope he can get some putts to drop.

Ignoring recent form is required with this next selection, Sebastian Munoz +10000 comes into this week with two missed cuts in his last two starts with his best result coming at the last event in Texas where he finished T9.

Munoz spent his collegiate days at nearby North Texas University and some of his better results have come in the state of Texas including the aforementioned T9 at the Valero Texas Open in April, and another top 10 finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson when it was last held in 2019. The Columbian who ranks inside of the top 25 in birdie or better percentage, could once again do well in the Lone Star State this week.

Patton Kizzire +12500 is another player who showed up during the last event held in Texas as he also posted a T9 finish at last month’s Valero Texas Open. The 35-year-old tends to play well in some of these events with more favorable scoring conditions as he is a terrific putter. Patton has now made two cuts in a row, he also gained strokes with his irons last week indicating his game may be well-positioned for him to contend again this week.

Both Tom Hoge +15000 and Kramer Hickock +25000 will wrap up the card for the AT&T Byron Nelson. Hoge is another terrific iron player that is often let down by his putter, he has missed his last two cuts on Tour in large part due to the putter. The TCU product is another who spent his collegiate golfing days in the area and with his tendency to putt better on Bentgrass greens is worth taking a shot with this week.

Next. 2021 Wells Fargo: Winners and Losers from Quail Hollow. dark

Hickock played well for a period of time last week and has now made it back-to-back events that he has gained strokes with his irons, I’ll hope that he can carry some of that momentum into this week at a huge number, and also will be looking to play him in the placement markets as well.

AT&T Byron Nelson Card

Scottie Scheffler +2200
Doug Ghim +7000
Sebastian Munoz +10000
Patton Kizzire +12500
Tom Hoge +15000
Kramer Hickock +25000

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