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2021 Byron Nelson: Dark Horses

By Richard McCusker

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 13: Doug Ghim of the United States reacts to his shot from the 17th tee during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship on THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 13, 2021 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 13: Doug Ghim of the United States reacts to his shot from the 17th tee during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship on THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 13, 2021 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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Before I jump into this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, I wanted to do a quick recap for the Wells Fargo Championship. My three dark horses were Charl Schwartzel, Kyle Stanley, and Michael Thompson. This was a great week for me despite going lighter on entries. I 8x my small entry fee with Schwartzel coming in 14th and Kyle Stanley coming in 26th. Michael Thompson missed the cut. Stanley should have came inside the top 10, but fell all the way back to even during his final round Sunday. This week I will be going lighter again with a new course coming into play and preferring to wait until the PGA Championship which is next week.

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This week, the PGA Tour is heading to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX for the AT&T Byron Nelson. Technically the defending champion is Sung Kang, but the last time this tournament was played was in 2019 at Trinity Forest. This course has not held an event since the 2012 Nationwide Tour Championship where Justin Bolli came out on top and James Hahn was the runner-up.

This week I will be providing three dark horses, meaning players that are longshots, but could play really well for their low salary. These dark horses are golfers that are $7,500 and below. Also I use DraftKings, so these prices will be for their website, but the players can be used on FanDuel as well.

Dark Horse Number 1

Doug Ghim ($7,500) – Ghim is one of my dark horses this week because he has been playing well despite a couple of missed cuts. At $7,500, I think he can crush his salary if he can figure out the putting. He has shown some flashes of going low and this should be a course where it will be won by a low score. His stats really show that he should have a great week at TPC Craig Ranch. I know McKinney is not that close to Austin, but him going to the University of Texas is something that I like and includes him in the “played golf in Texas” narrative. Seems like he will be the chalk this week, but it is chalk that I am not missing out on with his high ceiling.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: MC, 33, 44, MC, 29

Last Three Finishes Here: No tournament here since 2012 Nationwide Tour Championship

Key Stats:

SG Approach: 10th

SG Off-The-Tee: 71st

Par 4 Scoring Average: 15th

SG Putting: 104th

Dark Horse Number 2

James Hahn ($7,100) – Hahn is one of my dark horses because even though it was almost a decade ago, he did come in 2nd at the Nationwide Tour Championship in 2012. Also after looking at the key stats, he really should set up to be a solid value play this week. He has been playing awful the past few tournaments, but he does have a 41st and 15th in two of the last five starts. That shows that he can find the top despite being a risky player that could easily be cut.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: MC, MC, MC, 41, 15

Last Three Finishes Here: No tournament here since 2012 Nationwide Tour Championship

Key Stats:

SG Approach: 73rd

SG Off-The-Tee: 113th

Par 4 Scoring Average: 1st

SG Putting: 41st

Next. 2021 Wells Fargo: Winners and Losers from Quail Hollow. dark

Dark Horse Number 3

Vincent Whaley ($7,000) – Whaley is my final dark horse this week because he is someone that I have minimal knowledge on, but his recent finishes make me excited to play him this week. His key stats are not that hot, which does give me some worry, but five made cuts in a row helps me back him blindly. This is a new course to these guys, so I think anyone should be able to pull out a win here. Clearly this guy can make his way around different courses and another top 30 or better from him should make for a big week in DFS.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: 26, 29, 34, 28, 36

Last Three Finishes Here: No tournament here since 2012 Nationwide Tour Championship

Key Stats:

SG Approach: 181st

SG Off-The-Tee: 97th

Par 4 Scoring Average: 59th

SG Putting: 168th

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