103rd PGA Championship: Betting preview and picks to win at Kiawah

There may not be two more contrasting tournaments on the entire PGA schedule than the birdie-fest that we saw last week in Texas, to what we are about to see at the 103rd PGA Championship. Early reports in the week are calling for wind gust’s in the double digits across all four days on an already brute of a course that will be playing at over 7,800 yards in length, making it one of the longest in Major Championship history.

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The PGA Championship returns to the Pete and Alice Dye-designed Ocean Course at Kiawah Island for the first time since Rory Mcllroy’s dominant eight-stroke victory in 2012. The oceanside links-style course saw a host of player’s with varying skillsets amongst the top 10 on the leaderboard in 2012, and while it’s hard to glean too much from the one year the event was held at Kiawah, it might be fair to assume that while distance will be an advantage, it may not mean everything this week.

Collin Morikawa will look to defend the Wanamaker Trophy this week after winning his first career Major at just 23 years old last year at TPC Harding Park. Morikawa joins an elite 156 man field that will make the trip to Kiawah Island, South Carolina to compete for the 103rd PGA Championship along with 49 more of the top 50 players in the World per the Official World Golf Rankings.

The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, host of the 103rd PGA Championship

Par 72
7,820 Yards
Pete and Alice Dye Design
Paspalum grass/Fairways and Greens
156 Man Field/Top 70 and Ties make the weekend

Past PGA Championship Winners

2020: Collin Morikawa (-13)

2019: Brooks Koepka (-8)

2018: Brooks Koepka (-16)

2017: Justin Thomas (-8)

2016: Jimmy Walker (-14)

2015: Jason Day (-20)

The Favorites at the 103rd PGA Championship

The Odds used in this article are provided by WynnBet and are current at the time of the article, for more betting news and information check out the newly launched BetSided

(Photo credit should read DON EMMERT/AFP/GettyImages) /

2012 Champion Rory Mcllroy +1200 lead’s the way after coming off his first win in over a year and a half in his last start. Jon Rahm +1400 follows suit as he looks for that first career Major win this week.

Bryson DeChambeau +1500, Jordan Spieth +1500, and Justin Thomas +1500 all sit on the 15/1 line entering the week. Spieth will be aiming to complete the career grand slam puzzle at Kiawah Island and he comes into the 103rd PGA Championship in fantastic form with seven top 10 finishes in his last nine starts.

South Carolina’s own Dustin Johnson +2000 has drifted down into this area after struggling for form in recent months, he is joined by two more players to close out the favorites range in Xander Schauffele +2000 and Viktor Hovland +2200. Schauffele will be hoping that his astonishing record in Major Championships finally translates into a breakthrough victory.

Two picks from the Favorites

Jordan Spieth +1500

The Jordan Spieth revival in 2021 has been magnificent, and now he gets an opportunity to complete the career grand slam on a Pete Dye design. Jordan seems to have every facet of his game clicking right now, and even after missing nearly a month due to a positive COVID test, he has hardly skipped a beat. The last time the PGA Championship was played on a Pete Dye course was at Whistling Straits in 2015, where Spieth finished 2nd.

Dustin Johnson +2000

Some may be scared off of Dustin Johnson this week after he pulled out of last week’s Byron Nelson citing an injury to his knee. That risk however is reflected in his price, and I am willing to take a chance with the World number one this week. Johnson rates out best in the field in total strokes gained on Pete Dye tracks and he has shown he has the ability to play well in difficult windy conditions before. He also has finished runner-up in the last two PGA Championships and will be relishing the opportunity to win his first PGA Championship in his home state.

The Midtier

Pete Dye specialist Daniel Berger +3000 starts off the middle range this week alongside defending PGA Champion Collin Morikawa +3000. Berger has five top 10 finishes in 2021 so far, including a win earlier in the year at the AT&T Pro-Am. Daniel has been trending in the right direction and will be a trendy pick to win his first Major this week.

2020 PGA Champion Morikawa is one of the best long-iron players on the planet right now, something that is expected to be of great importance this week on the lengthy Ocean Course. Collin will begin the week confident he can defend his title after finishes of 18th and 7th in his last two starts, with the latter coming on another Pete Dye design just down the road at Hilton Head.

2021 Masters Champion Hideki Matsuyama +4000 can be found in the forty range this week along with two more past Major winners in Webb Simpson +4000, and Patrick Reed +4000. Finally, Tony Finau +4000, Cameron Smith +4000, and Corey Conners +4000 complete the crowded 40/1 category.

Aussie Cameron Smith seemingly has the perfect skillset for Kiawah, he is sneaky long and has a terrific short game, something that is expected to be critical this week with the Ocean Course having one of the lowest greens in reg hit percentage out there.

The man that has won two of the last three PGA Championships can be found alongside a handful of others to complete this range. Brooks Koepka +5000 is always dangerous in these big events, and if he is truly healthy will be a force to be reckoned with this week.

Koepka is mixed in with Will Zalatoris +5000, Scottie Scheffler +5000, Patrick Cantlay +5000, Tyrell Hatton +5000, Matthew Fitzpatrick +5000, Joaquin Niemann +5000, and finally Sam Burns +5000, in the category that I am calling the ‘we don’t know what to do with these guys’ range.

Pick from the Midtier

Tony Finau +4000

Always the bridesmaid, never the bride for Finau who’s track record in these Major’s is undeniable. Tony has recorded an incredible nine top 10 finishes in nineteen appearances in Major Championships, including at last year’s PGA where he finished 4th for his best finish in a PGA Championship to date. Finau’s recent form has been a bit up and down lately, but he did record a 10th place finish at the last PGA Championship held on a Pete Dye design in 2015, and he had his best finish at a Major at the Open in 2019 when he finished runner-up, so a seaside Major may be perfectly suited for the Finau breakthrough at long last.

Long Shots

Paul Casey +7500

There is a lot to like about Casey this week, he comes into this week in good form after he has had a rejuvenated 2021 so far that includes a win, and four more top 10 finishes. He ranks fourth in total driving, and second in approaches from 200 yards or longer this year, and he finished runner-up at last year’s PGA Championship.

Tommy Fleetwood +7500

Fleetwood was my pre-season pick to win the 103rd PGA Championship and he has not done anything to deter me from sticking with him in this spot. Tommy is another whose game could set up nicely for Kiawah and who has had a fair amount of success on links courses, including at the last Open in 2019 where he finished runner-up to eventual winner Shane Lowry. His form has been a bit hit or miss in recent starts, but he has shown an improvement in the ball striking department lately and he quietly rates out as one of the better short-game players in 2021, ranking 7th in strokes gained around the green.

Si Woo Kim +10000

Hard to pass up an opportunity to play Si Woo Kim in this spot who always seems to pop on Pete Dye tracks. Si Woo already has a win to his name in 2021 after he won earlier in the year on another Pete Dye design at the American Express, he also was in contention for a while at the Masters before finishing in a share of 12th, and he quietly finished T13th at last year’s PGA Championship also. Kim has a terrific all-around game, including a very good around the green game (21st on the year), he just needs the putter to come along in order to really contend.

Next. 2021 PGA Championship: Top 10 power rankings at Kiawah Island. dark

Gary Woodland +10000

I’ll finish up by taking a chance with a former Major champion at long odds. Woodland endured a difficult stretch for much of late last year into the earlier part of 2021, but he has started playing well again and he credited the improvement to some swing changes he made prior to the Wells Fargo where he finished 5th. Woodland won his U.S. Open on another coastal course at Pebble Beach, and he played well at the PGA Championship held at Bethpage two years ago on his way to a 6th place finish at another long and difficult course.