Brooks Koepka’s weekend path to immortality

This weekend could be a transformative one for the reputation of Brooks Koepka among the game’s all-time greats.

Koepka begins play Saturday at 4-under par, one stroke behind Louis Oosthuizen and Phil Mickelson. He’s already a four-time Major champion, so a win at Kiawah Island this weekend would put him in elite company.

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Only 14 players in golf history have won five or more men’s majors, and only eight of them have done so in the past half century.

But Koepka’s resume is singular among those multiple Major winners because all of his titles came within a 24-month period that ended two years ago at the 2019 PGA.

Since then Koepka’s had his moments: he was second to Gary Woodland at the 2019 U.S. Open. But chronic injuries have largely hampered his progress up the ranks of the game’s all-time greats. In fact, injuries (and Covid) have limited Koepka to just four Major starts since that 2019 PGA victory: a tie for fourth at the 2019 British Open, a tie for seventh at the 2020 Masters, a tie for 29th at the 2020 PGA and a missed cut at the 2021 Masters.

There are probably several ways to assess any player’s standing among the game’s greats, but the best is to assess the exceptionality of a player’s performance in Majors when that player is at his peak. In my book, The Whole Truth, I laid out such a system and used it to rank more than 200 players across the game’s history. (For the record, Tiger Woods was No. 1.)

Those interested in the details of how the rating works can consult the book. The one-sentence explanation is as follows: Calculate the standard deviation of a player’s performance in his 10-best Majors over a period of five consecutive seasons.

Standard deviation, rather than score, is used to normalize for all the many changes over time – in courses, weather, equipment, training and the like – that would befoul any attempt to use more familiar numbers.

By that method, Koepka entered play at Kiawah Island as the 12th best player in men’s golf history. His peak rating – the average standard deviation of his 10 best performances in Majors since 2017 – was -2.04. Woods, by comparison, had an average score of -2.68, lower naturally being better in golf.

The normal standard deviation of a Major championship winner from the field average is about -2.50, although that figure can vary by as much as a full stroke in either direction. The standard deviations of Koepka’s four winning scores in Majors have been typical: -2.34, -2.42, -2.75 and -3.04.

We can, then, calculate an approximation of how much a fifth Major title this weekend would elevate Koepka among those occupying the game’s Pantheon. Were he to add the 2021 PGA Championship to his resume with a standard deviation of -2.50 strokes, Koepka’s peak rating would improve to -2.09 by the end of the weekend.

That would elevate Koepka among the game’s all-time top 10. He would pass some historic names: Ralph Guldahl (-2.05), Phil Mickelson (-2.06), and Ben Hogan (-2.06), and stand ninth for peak greatness.

It would also give Koepka a legitimate chance to move even further up the ranks with strong showings in either or both of the final two Majors of his five-season bloc, the 2021 U.S. and British Opens.

The players Koepka could yet pass – ranking sixth, seventh and eighth for peak performance – are all legends: Bobby Jones (-2.11), Walter Hagen (-2.11) and Sam Snead (-2.10). Less likely targets, but statistically within Koepka’s range with a big 2021 Major season, are Tom Watson and James Braid, both at -2.18.

The only three players whose peak scores seem beyond Koepka’s reach are Woods, Jack Nicklaus (-2.35) and Arnold Palmer (-2.32).