The Strokes Gained numbers make Brooks Koepka the favorite Sunday
By Bill Felber
If season-long form holds, Sunday will be a great one for multi-time major champion Brooks Koepka. But it won’t be Phil Mickelson.
Projecting their season-long Strokes Gained averages onto the final round at the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island, Brooks Koepka looks like a good bet to overtake Mickelson and win his fifth major championship.
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The numbers say he’ll do so by holding off another former Major champion by a stroke. And again, that former champion runner-up won’t be Mickelson but Louis Oosthuizen.
There’s only one thing wrong with these projections: The season-long Strokes Gained numbers haven’t been worth shucks all week.
More on that in a moment. First the projection data. Koepka is averaging about 1.64 Strokes Gained on the field for the 2021 season. By that rubric, it’s reasonable to project a round of two-under 70 for him Sunday. That would give him a four-round total of 280 and – by the projections – a victory.
The same process would yield a top 9 as follows:
Player Sun. Total
1 Brooks Koepka 70 280
2 Louis Oosthuizen 70 281
3 Phil Mickelson 73 282
4 Kevin Streelman 71 283
T5 Christian Bezuidenhout 71 284
T5 Bryson DeChambeau 70 284
T5 Joaquin Niemann 70 284
8 Brendan Grace 72 285
9 Gary Woodland 72 286
With the likely exception of Mickelson himself, it would surprise nobody if a 50-year-old shot over par Sunday. The problem is that statistically Mickelson has been performing very unlike his 50-year-old self all week, and it is not at all clear he intends to revert to recent form Sunday.
Through three rounds Mickelson leads the field in both Strokes Gained Overall and Strokes Gained Tee to Green. He’s averaging 4.779 in the former category and 4.018 in the latter.
Mickelson’s primary advantage has been in his approach game. He is second in the field in Strokes Gained Approaching The Green, behind only Koepka.
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That’s right: through three rounds the two tournament leaders are also the leaders in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green. That shouldn’t be a surprise, since the historical correlation between a player’s performance in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green and his scoring average is a powerful 70 percent.
The big surprise is that Mickelson is knocking down his irons so consistently. For the season as a whole, Mickelson ranks only 131st on Tour in that category with an average of -0.80. Phil hasn’t had a season-long Strokes Gained Approach average in positive territory since 2018, and he hit his category best way back in 2006.
In other words, 50-year-old Phil is hitting his irons at – for him—an out-of-body level this week.
But then Mickelson has defied every aspect of his statistical profile all week. Through those first three rounds, here’s how Mickelson’s performance in the four major Strokes Gained categories compares with his season-long performance.
Season (Rnk) Kiawah (Rnk)
Off The Tee -0.443 (T193) 0.515 (36)
Approach -0.080 (131) 2.714 (2)
Around Green -0.119 (T158) 0.789 (19)
Putting -0.031 (122) 0.761 (28)
The best reason to expect Koepka to overtake Mickelson Sunday is that Koepka is playing far closer to his normal level. Through three rounds, he ranks 32nd in SG Off The Tee, 1st in Approaches, 33rd around the green and 38th in putting. For the season as a whole, Koepka’s ranks in those four categories are 24th, 38th, 40th and 23rd.
dark. Next. 2021 PGA Championship: Big Names Miss Cut at Kiawah Island
Then again, Mickelson’s been out-performing his recent resume by so much all week that one wonders whether there’s a Faustian bargain in play at Kiawah. Even Koepka may be unable to overcome supernatural forces.