Dark Horses for Charles Schwab Challenge: NeSmith Contends

Before I jump into this week’s Charles Schwab Challenge, I wanted to do a quick recap for the PGA Championship. My three dark horses were Garrick Higgo, Matt Wallace, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. All three found their way through the cutline which was a big success! Higgo had a bad Saturday, but a pretty good Sunday. He finished 8-over and in a tie for 64th. Wallace as well had a bad Saturday, but just a decent Sunday. He finished 6-over in a tie for 55th. The guy that was so hot all week and in contention, just to fall off Sunday was Bezuidenhout. He was 3-under and only a few shots back in a tie for 5th headed into Sunday. He finished 5-over for his final round, but 2-over total in a tie for 30th. That was a let down from such a great possible finish, but still a top 30 from a dark horse is never a bad thing.

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This week, the PGA Tour is heading to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. The last time this tournament was played was June last year instead of May. Daniel Berger came out on top in a playoff with Collin Morikawa. We saw a ton of the big name like Bryson, Rose, Xander, Reed, all in the top 10, but there were a few of those dark horses. At that time, Jason Kokrak and J.T. Poston were two of them inside the top 10. Inside the top 15, we also saw Champ, Rodgers, Sabbatini, and Uihlein. This year we do not have as many big names, which I think opens the door for more longshots to climb the board.

This week I will be providing three dark horses, meaning players that are longshots, but could play really well for their low salary. These dark horses are golfers that are $7,500 and below. Also I use DraftKings, so these prices will be for their website, but the players can be used on FanDuel as well.

Dark Horse Number 1

Doug Ghim ($7,200) – One of my dark horses is Doug Ghim because his stats show that he should light this place up. He has not played the best, but two cuts in a row and in Texas makes me want to believe in a bounce back week. He missed the cut here in 2020 and 2019, but he has become a lot better golfer since than. He is inside the top 20 in all four of the key stats that I believe will help you find your way around Colonial.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: MC, MC, 33, 44, MC

Last Three Finishes Here: MC, MC, DNP

Key Stats:

SG Approach: 13th

Par 4 Scoring Average: 11th

Hit Fairway %: 18th

Green in Regulation %: 16th

Dark Horse Number 2

Matthew NeSmith ($7,300) – NeSmith is another one of my dark horse because his stats scream to play him here and he also has been playing pretty solid all around. He is inside the top 10 in two of the key stats, the other two are still really solid for a $7,300 golfer. His only outing here was in 2020, where he came in a tie for 49th. I find him a little underpriced as he looks to good here for only $7,300.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: 58, 21, 48, 34, 36

Last Three Finishes Here: T49, DNP, DNP

Key Stats:

SG Approach: 8th

Par 4 Scoring Average: 61st

Hit Fairway %: 41st

Green in Regulation %: 2nd

2021 PGA Championship: Big Names Miss Cut at Kiawah Island. dark. Next

Dark Horse Number 3

Harold Varner III ($7,400) – HV3 is my final dark horse, but kind of a risky one. He is inconsistent, but when he is on he has such a high ceiling. Every other event he has came in 49th, missed cut, 2nd, missed cut, 19th. I hope this is not a missed cut week, and I am banking it on his 2020 finish here where he came in 19th. He is solid in two of the four key stats, which are SG Approach and GIR %. He is someone that won’t find almost all my lineups like Ghim and NeSmith, but he will be in at a few of them in hopes of the ceiling week.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: 49, MC, 2, MC, 19

Last Three Finishes Here: T19, DNP, DNP

Key Stats:

SG Approach: 39th

Par 4 Scoring Average: 118th

Hit Fairway %: 100th

Green in Regulation %: 63rd

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2021 Charles Schwab Challenge: Dark Horses

By Richard McCusker | May 25, 2021

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