As of Sunday, the 2021 Memorial Tournament has the smallest champion in PGA history. At 9 to 12 nanometers in size – basically 10 one-millionths of a meter — the SARS coronavirus (COVID-19) delivered a knockout blow to runaway leader Jon Rahm Saturday, and functionally emasculated Patrick Cantlay’s playoff victory over Colin Morikawa Sunday.
Rahm led the field by six strokes when officials forced him to the sideline following a positive Covid test. In golf terms, that’s essentially a full lap. Had he been allowed to play Sunday, Rahm’s victory would have been virtually assured. That’s what the math says.
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It’s obviously impossible to assert with certainty what Rahm would have done Sunday had Covid not intervened. But we can use the week’s actual performance numbers to make some very reasonable projections.
Let’s begin with the simplest projection. For his first three rounds, Rahm had averaged 66 strokes. Had he shot his tournament average round of 66 again Sunday, he would have breezed home in 264 strokes, a margin of 11 strokes ahead of Cantlay and Morikawa.
Because I know you are wondering, only 15 players in the history of the PGA Tour have won a tournament by more than 11 strokes. The last to do so was Phil Mickelson, who won the 2006 Bell South by 13.
But perhaps Rahm, playing without pressure Sunday, would have also played without focus. Had he merely played par golf on the par 72 Muirfield Village layout, he would have come home in 270 strokes, beating Cantlay and Morikawa by five.
Could Rahm have played even worse? After all, he was supposed to be at risk of coming down with Covid. The field average score Sunday was exactly 73 strokes. Had Covid reduced Rahm to the field average, his 73 would have brought him home four shots in front.
In order to actually miss the Cantlay-Morikawa playoff, Rahm would have had to shoot at least a 78 Sunday.
Of the 68 players who teed it up Sunday, only Higgs, Troy Merritt (78) and Michael Thomspon (81) failed to better 78. Only four others – Corey Conners, Charl Schwartzel, C.T. Pan and J.T. Poston – shot 77, a score that would have put Rahm in the playoff.
The 61 other finishers all posted a score Rahm would have won with. By that measure, Rahm had a 90 percent chance to at least make the playoff and a 96 percent chance to win outright.
The performance data also underscores the command Rahm had on the field when that Covid test sidelined him.
The table below shows the Strokes Gained numbers in the four key categories for Cantlay (through four rounds) and Rahm (through three rounds). I’ve also included a line projecting Rahm’s four-round Strokes Gained data.
SG Tee SG App. SG Around SG Putt Total
Cantlay (4) 3.695 6.064 4.522 2.836 17.117
Rahm (3) 4.119 9.153 2.095 5.649 21.016
Rahm (Proj. 4) 5.149 11.441 2.619 7.061 26.270
Add them up and even a three-round Rahm has Cantlay down by four strokes. Give Rahm a Sunday round and he projects to expand that advantage to more than nine strokes.
This isn’t an argument that the PGA Tour should have let Rahm play Sunday. Given both the ongoing widespread concern about Covid and their own rules, Tour officials had no choice from a public relations standpoint, and possibly also from a medical standpoint.
It is to demonstrate that only a 10-nanometer-sized entity prevented Rahm from an almost inevitable victory Sunday. Patrick Cantlay will get the win, but Covid should get a line on the trophy.