121st U.S. Open: The case for and against 10 potential winners
The scenic and iconic Torrey Pines is set to host the 121st U.S. Open as 2021’s third Major (also known as the second U.S. Open this year as part of the PGA’s SUPER season) is already upon us.
The last time the stunning Torrey Pines (South Course) hosted a U.S. Open was back in 2008 when Tiger Woods was doing Tiger things, nothing big at all really, just winning a Major Championship on one leg!. Poor Rocco Mediate didn’t stand much of a chance after Tiger holed the famous putt on the 18th to send the U.S. Open into a Playoff the next day. Sadly there will be no Tiger Woods in this year’s U.S. Open, instead, last year’s (Or this season’s?..) U.S. Open Champion Bryson DeChambeau look’s to ignore all the shouts of “Brooksy” from the crowd and repeat the feat that Koepka himself has already accomplished and win back to back U.S. Opens.
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While everyone is secretly hoping for that DeChambeau, Koepka, final pairing come Sunday, there are other intriguing names to consider in what is shaping up to be a very wide-open 121st U.S. Open. Jon Rahm is the oddsmaker’s favorite to win at Torrey Pines with his incredible track record at Torrey (7th,2nd,5th,29th, win) and sparkling recent form (up until the unfortunate events of a couple of week’s ago). Apart from the WD at the Memorial prior to Rahm’s final round, it appeared like the stars were perfectly aligning for him to land his first Major victory at Torrey Pines, and while he most definitely still could, it’s never really that easy is it?. In today’s game, there is very little that separates the best in the World, here is the case both for and against ten of the favorites heading into the U.S. Open.
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Making the case for and against ten potential winners of the 121st U.S. Open
1. Jon Rahm (+900)
Case for: Where to begin?, how about the fact that the Spaniard has finished inside of the top 10 now in 7 of his 12 starts in 2021, this does not even include the Memorial where Rahm was about to win by at least a touchdown over the rest of the field. Then there is his impeccable record around Torrey Pines (as mentioned previously) where he has recorded a win and three more finishes of 10th or better in four of his last five starts. If that’s not enough to chew on, he has also recorded 7 top 10 finishes in Majors now dating back to 2018, this includes a 3rd place finish at the U.S. Open in 2019 when it was last played on the West Coast of the United States.
Case against: There will be a considerable amount of pressure on Rahm to not only win his first Major but to do it at a place he has had so much success. That does not even factor in exactly how much he will have been able to prepare for this event in the build-up to it. Jon is expected to clear the COVID-19 isolation protocol just days before the U.S. Open begins, and there will be a number of unknowns revolving around not only preparation but physical health as well.
2. Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
Case for: DeChambeau is the defending U.S. Open Champion after he won in some style at Winged Foot just last year, and he has shown he has the ability to tear apart long golf courses with thick rough already in his career. Bryson lead’s the tour in driving distance and ranks inside of the top five in tee to green, and he really does not have very many weak points in his game. While he does not have a great track record around Torrey Pines he should be encouraged by the last U.S. Open that was held here, when the majority of those that finished inside of the top 10 did not have a great history at Torrey Pines coming into the 2008 U.S. Open.
Case against: Bryson has had a good season but he really hasn’t contended since back at the PLAYERS in March where he finished 3rd a week after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Since that time DeChambeau has recorded just one top 10 finish and that came back at the Wells Fargo Championship several weeks ago, he will also need to contend with the “Brooksy” chants this week and the circus that comes with all of that.
3. Dustin Johnson (+1300)
Case for: It’s been a bit of an up and down 2021 for the World’s number one player, and despite all of that he still remains on top. DJ has an impressive Major resume even with the disappointments at the PGA Championship last month and the Masters before that. Johnson has 6 top 10 finishes in the big four events dating back to 2018 now, and that includes a 2nd place finish at the PGA Championship last year during the most recent major held in the state of California. Dustin has started to find some form again in recent starts and it may just be that a trip back West bodes well for him.
Case against: Dustin’s game has been improving recently but is it really where it needs to be at in order for him to contend in a Major again?. The World number one has been bounced early from the last two Majors, one of which came in his defense of the green jacket back in April, and he has recorded just three top 10 finishes overall since the start of 2021.
4. Brooks Koepka (+1500)
Case for: The man flat-out contends in Majors! even when his knees aren’t 100% he showed what he is capable of by finishing runner-up at the PGA Championship in a somewhat surprising fashion. Brooks or “Brooksy” as his friends call him, has 9 top 10 finishes in Majors since 2018. Bryson’s Arch-Nemesis has posted a runner-up finish and two wins in his last three U.S. Open starts with the most recent of those coming in California in 2019.
Case against: His Knee’s and Bryson’s revenge? other than that there is not a whole lot of concern with Koepka. Brooks does not have the best track record at Torrey Pines or on the West Coast in general and he has talked about his distaste for Poa-Annua greens previously, and that was back when he was putting well on other surfaces. Koepka has looked a bit uneasy with his putter in recent starts, including notably during the final round at the PGA Championship last month, so there is some concern around the state of his game on the greens heading into the U.S. Open.
5. Jordan Spieth (+1500)
Case for: Raise your hand if you had 2021 pegged as the year that Jordan Spieth returned to being the Jordan Spieth of old?. It was a long ride but the calendar turned to 2021 and the Spieth that everyone knows and loves climbed his way back into golfing relevance. The return has been so spectacular that only Jon Rahm has recorded more top 10 finishes this season than Jordan, and there is a real argument to be made that nobody is playing better than him right now.
Case against: For as incredible and consistent as Spieth has been in 2021 he still only has recorded the one win, despite finding himself in contention on several occasions. Jordan had a real opportunity to win for the second time this year in his home state of Texas just a few weeks ago, and despite Jason Kokrak’s best efforts to leave the door open for Spieth, he failed to capitalize. The 2005 U.S. Open winner has struggled in U.S. Opens since his win, with 35th being the best finish he has had in his last six attempts.
6. Rory Mcllroy (+1700)
Case for: Rory Mcllroy seldom comes into any event under the radar but as the 121st U.S. Open near’s it seems there is not as much hype revolving around Rory in comparison to some of golf’s other stars. Instead, it’s Jon Rahm, and the Brooks vs Bryson battle that is capturing all of the headlines. Perhaps it is due to his struggles at last month’s PGA Championship when after winning the week prior, he went to Kiawah Island as the clear favorite and proceeded to disappoint those with lofty expectations. Rory has not been his vintage self so far this year, and even with the win his performances have been erratic, to say the least, but there is a real chance he does well this week at another venue he has had success at with finishes of 16th, 3rd, and 5th, in his last three trips to Torrey Pines.
Case against: Torrey Pines will be set up very different this week than it has been in the past, and there is that whole erratic performances thing…
7. Xander Schauffele (+1700)
Case for: Xander’s excellent streak at Majors finally came to end at last month’s PGA Championship when he missed his first cut at one of golf’s four Majors for the first time since the 2017 PGA Championship. Even with the missed cut, Xander has his incredible streak at U.S. Opens to try and maintain this week with three top 5’s in his last four appearances, the hometown hero also gets to play this week at a venue he grew up playing throughout his teenage year’s.
Case against: It may be a spot he grew up playing but up until earlier this year, Xanders track record at Torrey since turning professional was not great with four missed cuts in his last six starts. There is bound to be an immense amount of pressure for Schauffele to finally get over the line this week at a Major in front of the hometown crowd.
8. Justin Thomas (+1750)
Case for: It’s been a struggle for Thomas since the win at THE PLAYERS in March, to say the least, but even with the struggles Justin remains an elite ball-striker, and there are few in the world that are better when he is firing on all cylinders. The World number two still ranks second in strokes gained tee to green, and strokes gained approach in 2021 even if the finishes since March don’t reflect that.
Case against: JT has just two top 10 finishes in thirteen starts, compare this to the eleven he had in twenty starts last year and things are looking pretty bleak for Thomas at the moment.
9. Collin Morikawa (+2000)
Case for: Collin put up an admirable defense of the PGA Championship just last month when he went on to record an 8th place finish in just his second-ever PGA Championship. The last time Morikawa played in a Major on the West Coast he won it, and now he gets to head back, all the while riding some very hot form coming into the U.S. Open. The 2020 PGA Champion has recorded three top 10 finishes in his last four starts, and he ranks first in strokes gained tee to green, approach, and ball-striking in 2021, yep this kid has got game.
Case against: For all his accolades revolving around other aspects of his game, Collin continues to struggle with the putter ranking outside of the top 100 this year, and that is with changes implemented to improve his performance with the flat-stick earlier this year. There has to be some concern that Morikawa wasted one of the few good performances he has had in 2021 with the putter in his last start when he finished 2nd to eventual winner Patrick Cantlay at the Memorial.
Next. 2021 Palmetto Championship: Winners and Losers from Congaree. dark
10. Patrick Reed (+2500)
Case for: Reed has three finishes of 15th or better in his last four U.S. Open starts, and not only does he come into this week having won at Torrey Pines earlier this year he also comes in having finished 10th or better in three of his last six starts on tour. Patrick has the perfect game for the difficult U.S. Open conditions and he can grind it out with the best of them with a magical short game that ranks as the third-best on tour in 2021.
Case against: The week at Torrey is bound to bring back memories of the incident that occurred here in the build-up to his win back in January, and while it could prove to be a bit of a distraction my bet is Patrick continues to embrace the villainous role and uses it as motivation if anything.