Where Jon Rahm ranks among the game's greatest players

The victory by Jon Rahm at this past week’s U.S. Open makes him a solid front-runner for 2021 Player of the Year. Not only did he ascend to world No. 1, he continued a string of excellence in recent Major championships that saw him tie for eighth at the PGA, for fifth at the April Masters and for seventh at the November 2020 Masters.

Since 2018, Rahm has five top 5s and eight top 10s in Majors.

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That string of high Major finishes also raises the question of Rahm’s standing among the game’s all-time greats.

The best way to measure a player’s standing relative to players of different eras is by calculating the standard deviation of his (or her) finishes relative to the competition. Standard deviation normalizes all the natural changes over time – in equipment, training, course and weather conditions – that would frustrate such comparisons if we tried to use a more common standard such as score.

I rate players twice: by the average of their 10 best showings in Major championships over a 20-tournament period (peak rating) and also by the sum of the standard deviations of their performances over the course of their professional careers (career rating).

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The two ratings are different. Some players with strong peak ratings have poor career ratings, and vice versa.

With that as background, how does Rahm rate coming off of his Open win?

Peak rating: Rahm’s best 20-tournament peak begins with the 2017 Masters. His 10 best Major finishes since then give him a peak score of -1.38. (In golf, low scores being better, a negative standard deviation is preferable to a positive one.)

That number basically means that in his 10 best Major showings Rahm has played 1.38 standard deviations better than the field of his competitors. That includes his -2.24 performance in winning the Open at Torrey Pines.

A peak score of -1.38 slots Rahm in a five-way tie for 123rd place all-time. He’s deadlocked with old-timers Alex Smith and Johnny Revolta plus former LPGA stars Marlene Hagge and Jane Blalock.

Considering men only, Rahm debuts on the peak list in a three-way tie for 75th with Revolta and Smith.

Career rating: In his first few Majors as a pro, Rahm played poorly and he’s still erasing the impact of that early history on his career score. He missed the cut in three of his first eight Majors. Largely for that reason, Rahm’s career score to date only adds up to +0.62.

That stands him 150th all time, just ahead of 1920s star Cyril Walker (+0.64) and just behind Ray Floyd (+0.54). Among men only, Rahm ranks 102nd, again sandwiches between Floyd and Walker.

The future: The intriguing aspect of Rahm’s rating is his potential for ascending both lists. He is, after all, only 26 years old.

If, for example, Rahm were to follow his U.S. Open win with a similar victory next month at the British Open, his peak score would improve from -1.38 to the neighborhood of -1.52. That would elevate him among the top 100 players – and close to the top 50 men – for peak rating.

Beyond that, since 2017 was not an especially good year for Rahm, he would enter the 2022 season with a chance to improve his 20-tournament (2018-2022) peak even more. Give him that 2021 British Open win plus four more top 10 finishes in 2022 and it’s plausible to project Rahm’s peak rating improving to the neighborhood of -1.67 by the end of 2022.

Only about 60 players in golf history – and only about 35 men — have attained a -1.67 peak rating. Rahm would stand in the company of such familiar names as Johnny Miller, Davis Love III, and LPGA legend Babe Zaharias.

Next. 2021 U.S. Open: Winners and Losers from Torrey Pines. dark

The newly crowned U.S. Open champ has similar potential for a move up the career ladder. Were he to achieve that second Major win plus four other top 10s by the end of 2022, we could project Rahm’s career rating to improve to about -7.50.

That would put him just outside the top 100 for all players, and among the top 75 men, for career performance. And he would have most of his prime seasons ahead of him, plenty of time to further ascend the rankings.

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Where Jon Rahm ranks among the game’s greats

By Bill Felber | Jun 23, 2021

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