The British Open: Host to recent greatness

In a very real statistical sense, we are in the midst of the most remarkable generation of performances in Major championship history. And the British Open, the 149th edition of which will be played this week at Royal St. George’s, is at the forefront of that remarkability.

Consider that there have been 469 recognized professional golf championships contested since the Brit was first played in 1860.

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Now consider that – based on the standard deviation (exceptionality) of the winner’s performance measured against the field average — six of the 15 greatest performance in the history of Major Championship golf have been authored just since 2010.

As for the Brit…it has witnessed four of its eight most dominant wins – including Nos. 1, 2 and 3 – in that period. All three rank among the five most dominant victories in the history of Major Championship golf.

That trend suggests that true greatness likely awaits whoever emerges as this week’s champion.

Standard deviation is a superb measurement of relative performance over time because – by normalizing a player’s performance against his field of competitors, who are normally the world’s best – it eliminates all the cross-era variables that might otherwise confound such comparisons.

Those variables include changes in equipment, course design, training/practice abilities, and obviously weather.

Because golf is a game where lower scores are better, standard deviations improve as they get more negative, not more positive. In a normal PGA Tour event, the winner will generally perform about 2.50 standard  deviations lower than the field.

Based on the standard deviation of each champion’s performance relative to his peers, here’s a list of the 15 greatest men’s Major Championship performances in history. Note the prominent standing of recent British Open champions, which are highlighted.

Place       Player                     Year/event                        Std. Dev.

1              Tiger Woods          2000 U.S. Open                  -4.34

2              Shane Lowry         2019 British Open            -3.72

3              Davis Love III         1997 PGA                            -3.54

4              Henrik Stenson    2016 British Open            -3.504

5              Louis Oosthuizen 2010 British Open           -3.502

6              Jack Nicklaus         1965 Masters                    -3.48

7              Tom Watson          1977 British Open            -3.38

8              Rory McIlroy           2011 U.S. Open                -3.35

9              Jack Nicklaus          1980 PGA                          -3.34

10           Ray Floyd                 1976 Masters                  -3.333

11           Tiger Woods            2000 British Open          -3.325

12           Padraig Harrington 2008 British Open        -3.30

13           Rory McIlroy             2012 PGA                       -3.28

14           Tom Watson             1980 British Open        -3.26

15           Jordan Spieth           2017 British Open         -3.25

Of the 15 most dominant performances in 469 iterations of men’s Major championships, six were authored just since 2010, eight took place at The Open, and four unfolded within the Open’s last 10 playings.

Those include the second, fourth and fifth most dominant championship performances in Major competition, and the first, second and third most dominant in the history of this event.

That may surprise some who don’t associate Shane Lowry’s 2019 victory with greatness on a level unprecedented save for Tiger at Pebble in 2000.  But consider that Lowry shot 269 at Portrush during a week when the four-round field, struggling through consistently troublesome weather, could only average 284.56…15 strokes worse.

Then consider that Lowry put away all of his challengers by a minimum of six strokes. That meant the margin between Lowry and runner-up Tommy Fleetwood was as great as the margin between Fleetwood and the five players who tied for 11th place.

We probably have a decent recollection of the greatness of Stenson’s showing at Troon in 2016, if only because his duel with Phil Mickelson underscored it. Stenson’s 264 only beat Mickelson by three, but on the challenging Troon landscape it destroyed the field average by 24 strokes.

As for Oosthuizen’s 2010 victory at St. Andrews, the most memorable lingering image of that week is of McIlroy’s Friday blowup.

This may have been one of those instances where weather trumps math. Mcilroy opened with a  stunning 63 to grab a first-day lead. Friday’s play broke calmly for the morning competitors, Oosthuizen among  them,  and he  turned in a 67 to back up his opening 65. But by afternoon the storms rolled in with a vengeance. Caught in them, McIlroy stumbled home in 80, killing his chances at victory.

Oosthuizen beat Lee Westwood by seven, with McIlroy eight back. The champion’s score of 272 was 15 strokes better than the four-round field average.

Spieth’s 2017 win at Birkdake doesn’t quite rank with that trio, but by historical standards it’s also exceptional. With rounds of 65-69-65-69 he memorably held off Matt Kuchar and beat that week’s field average by 13.5 strokes.

The British Open has tended to crown historically memorable championship performances in recent years. Whether that will occur again in 2021 remains to be seen, but the trend is encouraging.