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2021 The Northern Trust: Dark Horses

By Richard McCusker

HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 05: Mackenzie Hughes of Canada plays his shot from the first tee during the first round of the Vivint Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 05, 2020 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 05: Mackenzie Hughes of Canada plays his shot from the first tee during the first round of the Vivint Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course on November 05, 2020 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /
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Before I jump into this week’s tournament, I wanted to do a quick recap for the Wyndham Champion. First of all, WHAT A WEEK! Two of the three guys listed in last weeks article went into the six-man playoff. Ultimately Kevin Kisner won, but watching Branden Grace and Roger Sloan have a shot at the trophy was amazing to see. Also them coming in second after all things were said and done made for a nice day in DFS, where I came in 37th out of 5,900. Even though it was low-stakes, it was 10x back on my entry fee. My three dark horses were the two mentioned, Grace and Sloan, but also Bo Hoag who had a good Thursday, but a one-over Friday to miss the cut.

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This week, the PGA Tour is heading to Liberty National Golf Course in Jersey City, NJ for The Northern Trust. This field is pack with the biggest names, which as always means it will be harder for those value players to climb the board. In 2020 (TPC Boston), we saw guys like Alex Noren, Harry Higgs, and Brian Harman find their way into the top 15. This is a week where you will want some of the big guys like Rahm/DJ/Spieth, and than pair them with the value and super deep value guys since chances are the top guys will win. Also with the BMW Championship next week and only the top 70 in FedEx Cup standing will move on, so the guys on the bubble might be great targets since they are trying to secure a spot.

This week I will be providing three dark horses, meaning players that are longshots, but could play really well for their low salary. These dark horses are golfers that are $7,500 and below. Also I use DraftKings, so these prices will be for their website, but the players can be used on FanDuel as well.

Dark Horse Number 1

Mackenzie Hughes ($6,700): The Canadian Mac Hughes is one of my dark horses because he is a bubble boy on the right side, but just barely enough that if he plays bad, he is out. He played great last year, but it was at TPC Boston. This year all I can relate it to is his 2019 finish which was at Liberty where he came in 67th. That is not great, but obviously that was two years ago and Hughes is a much better player now. His stats don’t really line up, but neither did Branden Grace last week and he went into the six-man playoff. He has every reason to play his best this week, which makes me intrigued to play him.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: 37th, 50th, 6th, 14th, 76th

Last Three TNT Finishes: 13th (TPC Boston), 67th (Liberty), DNP

Key Stats:

SG Ball Striking: 175th

Par 4 Scoring Average: 145th

SG Around The Green: 77th

Sand Save Percentage: 187th

Dark Horse Number 2

Roger Sloan ($6,800): Going back to him after I was on him last week. Sloan is one of my dark horses because if you didn’t tell me his name, but gave me the stats and recent finishes, I would have placed this guy in the mid 8K range. Thankfully that is not the case and I can play him at $6,800. I think this is a horrible price by DraftKings, but a great one for people playing him because he helps you get in the top guys since he is sub 7K. Do not fade him because I think he can find his way up the board this week. Also he is 92nd in FedEx Cup standings, so another contention could get him in.

Last Five Finishes on Tour: 2nd, 6th, 16th, 31st, 71st

Last Three TNT Finishes: DNP, 64th (Liberty), DNP

Key Stats:

SG Ball Striking: 48th

Par 4 Scoring Average: 20th

SG Around The Green: 86th

Sand Save Percentage: 52nd

Next. 2021 Wyndham Championship: Winners and Losers. dark

Dark Horse Number 3

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,100): Vegas is my final dark horse because he even though he is 49th in standings, two week from now is the Tour Championship. He is just outside of that top 30 by 19 spots. He will come out and try to place high and give himself two last opportunities to make it into the Tour Championship. He also looks solid in two of the key stats and great in his recent finishes. Definitely a guy that I playing this week after another

Last Five Finishes on Tour: 15th, 16th, 2nd, 11th, 57th

Last Three TNT Finishes: DNP, 38th (Liberty), 15th (Ridgewood CC)

Key Stats:

SG Ball Striking: 30th

Par 4 Scoring Average: 28th

SG Around The Green: 146th

Sand Save Percentage: 100th

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