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A standard (deviation) for rating Ryder Cup teams

By Bill Felber

Sep 21, 2021; Kohler, Wisconsin, USA; Rory McIlroy (center left) and Sergio Garcia cross the player bridge to the 10th tee with their caddies uring practice rounds for the 43rd Ryder Cup golf competition at Whistling Straits. Mandatory Credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 21, 2021; Kohler, Wisconsin, USA; Rory McIlroy (center left) and Sergio Garcia cross the player bridge to the 10th tee with their caddies uring practice rounds for the 43rd Ryder Cup golf competition at Whistling Straits. Mandatory Credit: Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports /
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On paper, the United States Ryder Cup team is clearly superior to the European one that will compete this week at Whistling Straits.

Since golf courses aren’t made of paper, that observation may not mean much by the end of play Sunday. Still there’s no denying the statistical advantage possessed by the American team fielded by Captain Steve Stricker.

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The following breakdown of the numbers ahead of Friday’s first day of competition is based on play during the 2020-21 PGA Tour season. It’s a strong data set, encompassing performance across more than 50 events by 23 of the two dozen competitors.

Only Europe’s Bernd Wiesberger among the two teams’ members did not play in enough PGA Tour events last season to develop a complete statistical profile.

Assessment of the teams’ strengths and weaknesses considers the standard deviation of each player’s performance – relative to his fellow Ryder Cup participants — in the four major Strokes Gained skills: Off The Tee, Approaching the Green, Around the Green and Putting.

Why look at the standard deviation of the SG data rather than at the data itself? Because this approach gives the clearest indication of the extent of a player’s superiority relative to his fellow Ryder Cup players.

A score of 0.00 means the player displayed average skill level compared with the other Cup contestants.

The highest skill levels you’ll see – approaching 2.5 standard deviations superior to the average of Cup participants in a discipline – identifies a player consistently competing inside the best two or three percent of Ryder Cup players at that skill.

A one standard deviation rating identifies a player deserving to be considered roughly among the top 13 percent.

Players with negative standard deviations rate below average at a skill compared to their Ryder Cup peers. The law of math stipulates that no matter how good they are compared with you or me, roughly one half of Ryder Cuppers must be below average. The Ryder Cup is played at Whistling Straits, not Lake Wobegone.

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