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Hideki Matsuyama Off to Hot Start in Japan

By Justin Galiher

Hideki Matsuyama of Japan reacts after his birdie on the seventh hole green during the third round of the PGA Zozo Championship golf tournament at the Narashino Country Club in Inzai, Chiba prefecture on October 27, 2019. (Photo by Toshifumi KITAMURA / AFP) (Photo by TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP via Getty Images)
Hideki Matsuyama of Japan reacts after his birdie on the seventh hole green during the third round of the PGA Zozo Championship golf tournament at the Narashino Country Club in Inzai, Chiba prefecture on October 27, 2019. (Photo by Toshifumi KITAMURA / AFP) (Photo by TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP via Getty Images) /
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Hideki Matsuyama fired an opening round bogey-free 6-under 64 on Thursday at the ZOZO Championship, putting himself in contention to win right out of the gate. Though he trails fellow countryman Hiroshi Iwata by one shot, statisticians and oddsmakers alike have marked Matsuyama as the man to beat over the weekend.

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Data Golf’s Live Predictive Model currently gives him a 22.4% chance to claim victory in his home country, the only other player near that high of a probability is Joaquin Niemann at 21.0%. WynnBet also favors Matsuyama’s chances, placing him at +260 to win following the first round.

A streaky putter would be the only reason I would shy away from placing any bets on Matsuyama. Hideki has long been plagued by the inconsistent flat-stick, and that will be something to keep an eye on as the tournament plays out. Currently ranking 227th out of 247 in Strokes Gained Putting for the 2021-22 season, he will have to turn in a better performance on the greens if he wants to finish the job.

Victory this weekend for Matsuyama would kick a six month drought to the curb, his last win coming at the Masters in April. Since that time he has posted only three top-10s, one of which came at the Summer Olympics where he barely missed out on the Bronze Medal, coincidentally held in his home country of Japan.

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It would also provide a bit of redemption for Matsuyama, who came up just short of Tiger Woods when this event was played in Japan in 2019. The second-place finish is definitely one that Matsuyama remembers and would like nothing more than to put in his rear-view mirror.

This is shaping up to be a most memorable year for Matsuyama. A green jacket earned him a place in golf history and a victory this weekend at home could be the cherry on top.

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