Each week I will provide my favorite value plays for the upcoming PGA DraftKings slate.
This week I will highlight my favorite plays for the 2023 Genesis Invitational.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I’ll be playing this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned golfers is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings
2023 Genesis Invitational: Value Plays
Sungjae Im ($9,400)
DK Ownership 8-12%- Im is getting an ownership discount because of where he’s priced. Most people will probably pay up for the elite golfers or drop down below him. He’s in great form.
In five tournaments so far in 2023, he’s come in 4th place, 6th place, 13th place, and 18th place, he also had a missed cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
He’s 2nd in the field from approach shots over 200 yards, 10th in ball striking, 11th on par fours from 450-500 yards, and 7th in three-putt avoidance.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200)
DK Ownership 8-12%– Matsuyama is a huge value in this field. He came 39th at the Genesis Invitational last year and missed the cut in 2021. However, he came 5th and 9th the previous two years.
Hideki has made four straight cuts to start 2023. He’s 5th in strokes gained around the green over the last 24 rounds.
Adam Scott ($8,000)
DK Ownership 12-16%– Scott has finished 21st and 29th in his two tournaments this year. He played well tee to green in both but struggled with the putter at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Adam has been great at Riviera; making the cut nine out of ten times since 2010. He’s gained strokes off the tee in all ten of those appearances. Scott also won back in 2020 at Riviera Country Club. He finished 4th here last year.
He’ll come with some ownership attached but Scott comes in at a nice price tag relative to his course history.
Taylor Montgomery ($7,600)
DK Ownership 6-8%– I wrote up Montgomery last week and he missed the cut. That’s not going to discourage me from going back to him. He’s never played in this tournament but on paper, it should be a good fit for him.
Taylor’s a good driver of the ball with some power. More importantly, he has a great short game and putter for these difficult greens. He’s 5th in strokes gained in the short game department, and 9th in putting over the last 24 rounds.
Shane Lowry ($7,400)
DK Ownership 6-8%– This salary is just too good for the 22nd-ranked golfer in the world. Granted, Lowry hasn’t had an incredible start to the year but he still rates out well statistically. He’s 11th in ball striking and approach, 6th from approaches over 200 yards, and 7th on par fours from 450-500 yards over the last 50 rounds.
2023 Genesis Invitational: The Chalk
Max Homa ($9,700)
DK Ownership 20-24%– Homa has been incredible at the Genesis Invitational in his last three appearances. He came 10th last year, beat Tony Finau in a playoff in 2021, and came 5th in 2020.
Homa ranks 8th in strokes gained around the green and 3rd on par fours between 450-500 yards. Poa is by far his best putting surface and he’s been hot with the putter gaining strokes on the green in three straight events. He already has a win and a 3rd place finish this year.
Tony Finau ($9,500)
DK Ownership 20-24%– Finau has good course history with two runner-ups in his last five appearances here.
In four tournaments this year he hasn’t finished worse than 16th place. Over the last 50 rounds, Finau is 1st in ball striking, 2nd on approach, 3rd from 175-200 yards, 2nd on par fours between 450-500 yards, and 11th around the green.