2023 Masters Dark Horses: Can Rose win the Green Jacket?
By Derek Helm
Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate.
This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the first major of the year; The Masters.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 Masters: Favorite Chalk Plays
Scottie Scheffler ($11,100)
DK Ownership: 22-25% – Scottie has been so unbelievably good even when it seems like he’s not on top of his game. He is so great at getting out of trouble and there’s plenty of it around Augusta.
He’s 4th in opportunities gained, 2nd in strokes gained off the tee, 4th in strokes gained approach, and 9th in strokes gained around the green over the last 24 rounds.
Scottie hasn’t lost strokes off the tee since the PGA Championship in May of last year.
Tony Finau ($8,900)
DK Ownership: 18-22% – Finau hasn’t missed a cut at the Masters in five appearances. He has three top 10 finishes including a 5th-place finish here in 2019.
Finau has been great with his irons gaining strokes on approach in eight straight tournaments. He’s 3rd in strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds.
More. 2023 Masters Coverage. light
2023 Masters: Favorite Dark Horse Plays
Justin Rose ($7,800)
DK Ownership: 15-17% – Rose missed the cut last year at the Masters but otherwise has been great. He’s made the cut 17/19 times at Augusta. He has seven top 10 finishes including two runner-up performances.
Rose has also been in much better form lately than in recent seasons. He came 18th at the Farmers, won at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and came 6th at the PLAYERS Championship. He’s gained strokes on approach in six straight tournaments.
Rose is 2nd in strokes gained putting on Bentgrass greens over the last 75 rounds.
Min Woo Lee ($7,600)
DK Ownership: 10-12% – Min Woo tied for 14th place in his Masters debut last year.
He missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but otherwise has played well this year. He finished 6th at the PLAYERS gaining a ridiculous 7.7 strokes putting. He also came 26th at the Honda Classic.
He was previously great on the DP World Tour coming 13th in Dubai, 2nd in Abu Dhabi, and ended 2022 with additional 3rd and 4th place finishes.
Min Woo is also 5th in driving distance over the last 50 rounds. We know power can be a difference-maker at Augusta.
Abraham Ancer ($7,400)
DK Ownership: 4-6% – Ancer has played well at Augusta with finishes of 13th and 26th. He missed the cut last year but was coming back from Covid so it’s possible he still wasn’t 100 percent.
Ancer has played well on LIV so far this year. He finished 26th in Orlando, 24th in Tucson, and 15th at Mayakoba.
He also won in Saudi Arabia on the Asian Tour earlier this year.
Harold Varner III ($6,500)
DK Ownership: 3-5% – Varner came 23rd last year in his debut at the Masters. He could’ve finished better if not for shooting an 80 on Saturday. He bounced back nicely shooting a 69 on Sunday.
Varner has also played well this year on LIV. He came 16th this past week in Orlando shooting seven under. He previously came 24th in Tucson and 27th at Mayakoba.
Next. The Masters: A Fantasy Guide for Augusta National. dark
When taking his previous rounds on the PGA into account, Varner is 7th in strokes gained around the green, 10th in scrambling, and 13th in strokes gained approach over the last 50 rounds.