We have the first two-event week on the PGA Tour this week, as we have both the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the opposite-field Puerto Rico Open going on.
We're going to focus primarily on the API in this article, but here's a quick pick of five guys I like in Puerto Rico if you're a golf nut who's into that sort of thing (I'll be honest, I probably won't watch a single minute of Puerto Rico): Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Steven Fisk, Ryan Gerard, Alejandro Tosti, and Karl Vilips.
The big story of this week is World No. 3 Xander Schauffele returning to the Tour after a two-month absence where he dealt with a microtear in his ribs (that's a new fear unlocked, so thanks for that, Xander).
As a spoiler before moving ahead into the actual rankings, I don't have Xander in the rankings this week because he's probably going to be a little tentative with the swing still and not fully rotating quite yet.
I expect Schauffele over the next couple of weeks to be a little disappointing while he ramps back up (fade him for The Players), but by the time we hit the majors, Xander should be fully back.
A big trend that has been clear through the recent history at Bay Hill is that long players who putt well tend to succeed. I don't want to say that the API is a bomb- and gouge-fest, but ever since Bryson DeChambeau brought the course to its knees in 2021, it's hard to argue that it doesn't favor the bomb and gouge style.
Shifting back to last week's performance, the players in the rankings were all over the leaderboard, with seven of the nine finishing in the top 25 (yes, Daniel Berger's T25 finish counts).
We're right there, but we just need to see someone break through again. The Signature Events have been where the winner success has come from this year, so let's see if we can find another one this week.
Honorable Mentions: Corey Conners, Matt Fitzpatrick, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele, MIchael Kim
9. Maverick McNealy
I wrote about McNealy in the power rankings for the Mexico Open since he was originally slated to play but withdrew after his second-place finish at The Genesis (to be fair, I would also skip Mexico after winning over $2 million in one week).
A lot of my reasoning for McNealy this week at Bay Hill is going to echo my reasoning for picking him in Mexico. His game has hit another gear this season, his putter is actually finding the bottom of the cup more consistently now, and his mix of skill off the tee and being a strong putter matches up well with the test Bay Hill gives all of the players.
He's shown that he can hang with the stars like he did at Torrey Pines, and I think we'll see a break from his past poor form at Bay Hill this year.
8. Min Woo Lee
If the Chef could focus more on hitting fairways than paging Doctor Chipinski, then he might have broken through for his first PGA Tour win already.
Min Woo Lee hasn't quite hit the same heights that he hit with his game last season yet, but he has raised his floor and we're seeing more consistent play.
Lee doesn't have a ton of experience at Bay Hill, but he's coming into the tournament in decent form, especially coming off a strong weekend at the Cognizant Classic, where he tied for 11th. He has the possibility of running hot this weekend, so watching and rooting for Min Woo this weekend will be, as always, a curious experience.
7. Wyndham Clark
I don't usually love picking guys that hold a negative Official World Golf Ranking to Data Golf ranking ratio, and Clark's -44 gap is the largest out of the entire top 20 in the OWGR.
However, Clark is coming back to a course where he finished second last season (an underrated part of the Scheffler run last year is Wyndham coming second to him in back-to-back weeks at API and The Players).
Clark's distance really helps him in the rankings here, as his ball speed can overpower certain parts of the golf course. Am I the biggest Wyndham fan? No, and I'll be honest about my bias against him. However, I think that he can perform very well at Bay Hill once again, and maybe he'll get lucky enough not to run into a generational buzzsaw this year.
6. Justin Thomas
It feels like Justin Thomas is fully back from his trip to the wilderness the last couple of seasons, with three top-10s in five starts so far on the year.
We got flashes of Thomas getting back to his major-winning form last year, but this season feels much more consistent so far, and the best part is that his positive performance with the putter isn't a fluke.
Thomas has played decently at the API throughout his career (his best finish was a T12 last season), but his ability to crush the ball off the tee paired with a hot putter should lead to JT faring well in Orlando.
5. Collin Morikawa
Morikawa's lack of success at Bay Hill recently doesn't make sense to me at all.
While Morikawa isn't necessarily the longest hitter on the PGA Tour (currently 165th in driving distance), he is top five in driving accuracy and is currently first in putting average (putts on greens in regulation divided by greens hit in regulation), so being able to get the ball in the fairway and putting the ball well should be enough for Morikawa.
He has to be feeling good after wrapping up the No. 1 seed in TGL with LA over The Bay, and maybe those good vibes will translate to Bay Hill.
4. Scottie Scheffler
Fun fact: this is the longest stretch between victories for Scottie Scheffler since he went into this very same tournament last year, where he was on a five-tournament-long winless streak.
The world No. 1 clearly loves Bay Hill, having won twice here in his career already, and this always seems to be the point of the season where Scottie kicks things into another gear.
It still feels like we haven't seen Scottie's A-game yet since he got his season underway, but the fact that he has been able to seriously contend already while still being super rusty is a bad sign for everyone else on the PGA Tour.
I just need to see it again from Scheffler before I put him up in the top spot in the rankings again.
3. Patrick Cantlay
This is probably the only time I'll ever put Patrick Cantlay above Scottie Scheffler in these rankings, but life is just full of surprises sometimes.
It feels like Cantlay is ready to finally pop in the 2025 season, and Bay Hill may be the spot for him to do so. He's playing well this year, but I think everyone is just expecting him to have truly contended in more events so far. He has two top-five finishes this year, but they've been pretty non-competitive.
Cantlay is still a great player and should be a name that finds his way to the first page of big leaderboards this year, and I would imagine Bay Hill will be a good spot for him to actually contend.
2. Rory McIlroy
Part of me is kind of glad Rory McIlroy doesn't have to think about playing any more TGL matches so he can just focus on the PGA Tour.
As the world No. 2 is still the only winner we've actually gotten right in the rankings this season, we're absolutely going back to the well and seeing if Rory can bag us another winner.
McIlroy's Sunday at The Genesis was not what we would've hoped to see out of him, but he's coming right into a course he loves playing (his worst finish is T27 in 10 appearances at Bay Hill), so I'm expecting a strong bounce back from Rory this week.
I know this isn't the deepest analysis, but he's Rory McIlroy, and that's really all I have to say.
1. Ludvig Aberg
Making his first start since his come-from-behind victory at The Genesis over Maverick McNealy, golf robot Ludvig Aberg should be able to pick up right where he left off at Torrey Pines.
Aberg finished T25 last year at Bay Hill, his only career start in the tournament prior to this year's edition.
While it is possible that the 25-year-old hasn't amassed enough experience at Bay Hill to be ready to fully compete for the trophy (the API is one of the few tournaments where course familiarity can heavily skew performance), it needs to be noted that he finished second in his debut at The Masters, where prior knowledge of Augusta National is seemingly tantamount to success.
Aberg has a game that travels to any and all courses in his path, and don't be surprised if he's seen as the top guy on Europe's Ryder Cup team at Bethpage.