2025 The Sentry Expert Picks

The opening event of the PGA Tour season is The Sentry. It is a loaded field, minus the world number one Scottie Scheffler who just had surgery. Outside of Scottie though, players like Xander Schauffele, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay are all taking part this week. We are going to take a deep dive into the Hawaiian course featured this week, as well as who we like to get out to a hot start in the 2025 season.

The Course – Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course) in Kapalua, Hawaii

This course has been featured on the PGA Tour for many years, the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort. This is one of the longer courses that you will see featured on the PGA Tour schedule at just shy of 7600 yards. Not only is the course long, but it is a pretty rare Par 73, featuring just three par threes. The most iconic hole here is the 677-yard 18th hole, which has had some incredible shots hit there over the years. Whether it was Bubba Watson's drive off the deck slice, or Tiger Woods's iconic eagle there decades ago, it is always riveting watching that final hole.

So what should you be valuing on the third longest course on the tour schedule? Well, certainly length and total driving numbers are a major asset here. With multiple par 4's 500+ yards and gettable par five's outside of the 18th, Par 5 scoring is certainly an asset here as well. This is also the kind of event where qualifying in years past was typically tough, given it was the "Tournament of Champions." So those players that have been here many times over the years is a major asset. So let's dive into our favorite plays for the week.

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2025 Golf betting record: 0-0-0 for 0.00 Units (Follow Us On Betstamp @CompetitiveHedge)

The Sentry Championship Picks For Winner, Top 10 & Top 20

Winner Pick For The Sentry (0.1 Units): Collin Morikawa +1100

One of our favorite players on tour has to be the multi-time major winner Collin Morikawa. Now Collin does have a history of playing well at this event, finishing T5 here in 2024 and second place in 2023. Not only is he the current fourth-ranked golfer in the world, but his strengths set up really well here. He is top 20 in strokes gained off the tee, 31st in total driving, and is a great putter as well. Collin certainly has the ability and track record to get the job done this week.

Top 10 Pick For The Sentry (0.4 Units): Sungjae Im +155

Sungjae Im is our second play for this week, but to finish in the top ten in Hawaii. He is another guy with a track record of success at this event, finishing T13 in 2023 and T5 in 2024. The numbers also support Im being a great play, given he is top thirty on tour in strokes gained off the tee. He is also top thirty in approach shots from 200+ yards and scores well on the Par 4's and 5's. Throw in the fact that he is top twenty in putts per round and we love this value for Sungjae to finish inside the top ten.

Top 20 Pick For The Sentry (0.5 Units) Max Homa +130

It was a bit of an up-and-down 2024 for Max Homa. One of the most likable guys on tour, he also appears to be going through an equipment change right now. He looks to be moving from Titleist to Cobra, but I think his game is still in a great spot to perform well. This is not a major, so Homa is still lethal in these regular event spots. He was T14 here last year, T3 in 2023, and still finished last season with three top tens despite his struggles. We hope he can reign in his driver this week and have a strong showing.

Top 20 Pick For The Sentry (0.5 Units): Nick Dunlap +145

Our final play for the week is the young Nick Dunlap, coming off a great 2024 season. He has yet to play in this event, but his stats should put him in a position to finish in the top 20 here. He is 40th in driving distance, so he does not lack the power to get around this course. He is one of the best putters in the field, as well as one of the best at scoring on the Par 5's. I know I spoke about experience being an asset, but to get Dunlap at this sort of number I think we have to pounce on the potential value.