"Golf's Toughest Test" is back this week, as the U.S. Open returns to Oakmont Country Club for the 10th time, the most in tournament history.
When you visit Oakmont's website, you are greeted with the line, "The ultimate examination of championship golf," and based on all of the reporting and content produced around the course in the buildup to this third major of the 2025 campaign, on top of all the rain that has fallen and will continue to fall this week, it will live up to that billing.
In 2016, the last time we saw Oakmont host America's national championship, only seven players finished the week at even par or better, and I would expect similar results this time around.
The rough is reportedly six inches thick in some areas, the greens are going to be running around a 15 on the Stimpmeter, and the course will be playing longer than its advertised 7,372 yards this week. Good luck to everyone playing and dealing with all of that.
This setup, as is the case with all U.S. Opens, will require elite ball striking from the eventual winner. When compiling my list, I also factored in bounce-back percentage and bogey avoidance, as minimizing mistakes and being able to recover from them is the name of the game in the USGA's flagship event.
A key factor that is needed is high club head speed, which will help get through the extremely thick rough. We've hit on the first two majors of the year, so let's get it to three in a row.
Honorable Mentions: Ryan Fox, Viktor Hovland, Stephan Jaeger, Hideki Matsuyama, Sepp Straka
9. Ben Griffin
If you have followed these rankings this season, you know how effusive I have been in my praise of Ben Griffin, and his current run has justified it. In his last three starts, Griffin has finished T8 at the PGA Championship, won at Colonial, and was Scottie Scheffler's closest competition at the Memorial, taking solo second.
Oakmont is not the best fit for Griffin, but when a player has gained strokes in all four stat categories for multiple weeks in a row, his game is in the best possible spot.
Even though he isn't the longest off the tee, the two-time winner this season has made up for it everywhere else, and he feels like the right kind of all-around golfer that can make a surprise run this weekend.
8. Shane Lowry
This feels forgotten due to the craziness that ended up being Dustin Johnson's win at Oakmont in 2016, but Shane Lowry entered that Sunday with a four-shot lead. He fell apart with a final-round 76, but the Irishman returns to the scene of the crime a major champion and in a better spot.
The 2019 Open Champion has had a very solid 2025 thus far and has been right there as one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour.
Lowry ranks 15th in bogey avoidance on Tour and is fifth in total strokes gained per round. Not overly long but an elite ball striker, Lowry's game should line up extremely well for Oakmont once again.
7. Sam Burns
Sam Burns' 62 this past Sunday at the RBC Canadian Open was sensational golf to watch. Since The Masters, Burns has been maybe the best performer on the PGA Tour without a win, with five top-20s in six starts over the last two months, including the runner-up this past week at TPC Toronto.
The 28-year-old LSU product is statistically the best putter on Tour this year, and good putting always plays at the U.S. Open. If we get a performance like the one he gave in Canada at a course that tried its best to emulate what Oakmont will throw at the field, then Burns should be a factor come Sunday.
6. Ludvig Åberg
His T13 at the RBC Canadian Open felt like the first tournament all season in which Ludvig Åberg actually put together four solid rounds of golf. This is now the first time all year that he's had multiple top-20 finishes in a row, which would have seemed crazy to write coming into the 2025 season.
If you can hit the ball far and straight at Oakmont, you'll gain a massive leg up on the competition. Åberg's driving prowess is exactly that style, and it feels like everything is trending once again for the Swede. I know I've been loyal to Ludvig to a fault this year, but this setup for him should lead to good results.
5. Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele has played in eight U.S. Opens in his career, and his worst career finish is a tie for 14th; everything else has been in the top 10. But as he hasn't yet hoisted the trophy, he feels due to win one of these.
He still hasn't quite put everything together yet this season, but the results for Xander haven't been disastrous. The tightness of Oakmont's fairways should cause this U.S. Open to play close to the Winged Foot edition in 2020, where Schauffele finished fifth.
He's grown exponentially as a player since then, and with the major titles under his belt now, he should come into Oakmont with a sense of both confidence and a chip on his shoulder, since he's coming in almost as the "forgotten man" on Tour with Rory and Scottie dominating the headlines.
4. Rory McIlroy
I think Rory McIlroy could easily miss the cut this week, just as he did in Canada. I wanted to leave him off the rankings entirely, but that felt too harsh.
His recent comments on struggling with motivation post-Masters are worrisome, but he still justifies having a spot on the list. I mean, he has finished in the top 10 in six straight U.S. Opens, including two straight runner-up finishes.
If McIlroy figures a few things out this week, then he should be in contention once again. I'm hopeful we saw the absolute bottom last week in Canada, and that he will turn a corner. This isn't Augusta or Quail Hollow-level enthusiasm for Rory this week, but he's still one of the key guys to watch at Oakmont.
3. Jon Rahm
Going into the back nine on Sunday at the PGA Championship, it felt like Jon Rahm, the killer, was back, and that he was going to run down Scottie.
However, we saw the engine run out of gas, and he faltered down the stretch to finish tied for eighth. It does seem that the brief funk in the majors Rahm experienced last year is well and truly over, and the two-time major champion is back to the form we remember.
Having won a U.S. Open before definitely helps in preparation, since you know how to handle USGA-level challenges. Not only has Rahm won a U.S. Open, he has also finished in the top 25 in each of his last 5 U.S. Opens (reminder: he did not play at Pinehurst last year due to a toe injury).
Especially with his form on LIV Golf since joining the Saudi circuit, the Spaniard is still one of the best players in the world, and he is in the middle of a Brooks Koepka-esque stretch where he is inevitably going to factor into all of the majors.
2. Bryson DeChambeau
Content king Bryson DeChambeau gave us a great look into Oakmont on his YouTube channel and talked about just how hard of a course Oakmont will be this week. DeChambeau did play in the 2016 edition, finishing T15 that week in his first major start as a professional.
This time around, of course, Bryson is a much different golfer.
The two-time and reigning U.S. Open champion has been up and down at this event in his career, with only five top-25s in 10 starts. But his driving is the ultimate weapon, and this recent shift of the U.S. Open favoring bomb and gouge-style golf has played right into DeChambeau's strengths the last few years.
He has been shaky on Sundays at majors recently, so there is cause for concern with Bryson as the outright winner. However, his speed can minimize the penalty of the rough, and if DeChambeau wins this week by multiple shots, I wouldn't be surprised at all.
1. Scottie Scheffler
I know, I'm really going out on a limb with this pick.
In 2016, Dustin Johnson came into Oakmont as arguably the best player in the world at that moment and won the U.S. Open. Don't be surprised if the same thing happens this time across the Pennsylvania Turnpike.
Scottie Scheffler's ability to bounce back from mistakes has been the most underrated part of his run and is the reason why he won the PGA Championship last month.
Scottie's ability to move past mistakes and get rounds back on track is unparalleled, and this is his best shot at another major this year. His performance at Pinehurst last year came down to an ice-cold putter, so I'm going to favor the recent form of three wins in his last four starts. This could be his "Tiger at Pebble in 2000" moment, and I wouldn't bat an eye.