Meteorological spring has arrived, and with it comes the third of the PGA Tour's Signature Events, this week bringing us to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. We start another stretch of back-to-back Signature Events, with The Players next week. All of the big names are looking to get right before "the fifth major", and Bay Hill is the perfect ground to do so on.
There is also the Puerto Rico Open this week, serving as the opposite-field event. Puerto Rico may be pulling the biggest headlines of the week with John Daly II making his PGA Tour debut there this week.
As is tradition, I do a mini-list of five guys I like to win there, and so here is my five: Zach Bauchou, Ricky Castillo, Eugenio Chacarra, Pontus Nyholm, Neal Shipley.
The rankings were so close last week for the Cognizant, and it really seemed like we had our names etched on the trophy when Shane Lowry stepped onto the 16th tee box. But alas, sometimes things go your way, and sometimes an Open champion puts two balls in the water in The Bear Trap. Nevertheless, we shall move forward and live to fight another week.
Honorable Mentions: Jacob Bridgeman, Ryan Gerard, Sungjae Im, Aldrich Potgieter, Jordan Spieth
9. Pierceson Coody
Pierceson Coody has seemingly found his footing on the PGA Tour this season after a couple of mixed-bag campaigns in 2024 and '25. In six starts so far this season, Coody has finished in the top 25 in five, including a T2 at the Farmers Insurance.
A T16 finish at the Genesis in his last start makes me feel much more comfortable in picking Coody in a Signature Event, as he's shown that he can stand up to some of the big names in golf with that performance. The 26-year-old is the best of the dark horse candidates to win this week.
8. Min Woo Lee
Are we finally going to get the true Min Woo Lee breakout season? Early returns are promising. After a slow start, a T2 at Pebble Beach and a T12 at Genesis have gotten us closer to the talent level that the hype surrounding Lee promised golf fans.
The biggest thing Dr. Chipinski has had to work on is his irons, and it seems like things are moving in the right direction on this front for the 27-year-old. While he doesn't have a good record at Bay Hill, I think this year is the year that bucks the trend.
7. Si Woo Kim
The start of this season has sneakily been one of the best stretches of golf in Si Woo Kim's entire career. Kim started the season with four straight top-11 finishes, and while he has cooled off a little bit in the last couple of weeks, the South Korean still feels very close to a win.
Kim is one of the most accurate drivers of the golf ball on Tour, and staying in the fairway is always a key skill to have around Bay Hill. If Kim finds at least an average week with the putter, it'll be like the 2017 Players all over again.
6. Shane Lowry
Yeah, that was a tough final hour of the tournament to watch as someone rooting for Shane Lowry. It's such a shame, because there were a lot of positives to take away from the week for Lowry, but that's all going to be overshadowed by two water balls at the worst possible time.
Regardless, Lowry has gone three-for-three this year in terms of top-25 finishes, and he's coming to a course where he has played very well the last couple of seasons. It almost feels like Tommy Fleetwood all over again, considering it's been over a decade since Shane Lowry has won a tournament on American soil. He's going to notch another win, and what better way than to bounce back from heartbreak?
5. Tommy Fleetwood
We have gone right back to Tommy Fleetwood being competitive, but not doing enough to win tournaments. I hoped things would be different after the Tour Championship, but that is quickly seeming like more and more of an outlier. Sure, Fleetwood has two top-10 finishes in two starts this year, but I just need to see him win more. The talent is there, we have seen it before, I need to see it again.
4. Jake Knapp
Another week, another top-11 finish for Jake Knapp. That's five straight to start the season, with four straight true top-10s for the 31-year old. While he hasn't pulled off the wins like other hot starters like Chris Gotterup, Knapp's consistency has me thinking that he has been the best breakout performer to start 2026 on Tour.
Even when one facet of his game is off in a given week, he steps up everywhere else to put together a solid performance. I would be shocked if he didn't pick off a win at some point this season, and it very well could come this week.
3. Collin Morikawa
I would like to welcome Collin Morikawa back from the abyss and into the rankings once again. I fully expected him to have an off-week coming off of the emotional win at Pebble, but he kept things moving with a T7 at Riviera.
Collin returning to the winner's circle is a great sight, and hopefully, the two-time major winner can keep up this moment to have a dominant season that has kind of always been expected of him. Bay Hill is a great spot for him; he almost won here last season, so hopefully, with the monkey off his back, Morikawa can feel loose and ready to attack this week.
2. Rory McIlroy
If Rory McIlroy had been able to pull off the comeback against Jacob Bridgeman at Riviera, then he would have jumped Scottie in this week's rankings. It never felt like Rory was really going to win at Riviera on Sunday, but his back nine felt like the kind of killer Rory instinct that we saw leading up to The Masters last year.
If this is a sign of things to come for McIlroy in 2026, we may be seeing someone pass Phil Mickelson in major wins.
1. Scottie Scheffler
Okay, something needs to be done about the early-round struggles for Scottie. The craziest thing is that, even with his early struggles, Scheffler still leads the entire Tour in scoring. Being able to turn making the cut on the number into a T12 finish is an impressive feat, but the expectations are just much higher when you're the golfer of your generation.
The irons have surprisingly been the weakest part of Scottie's game this year, so once those start turning around, then we should see the typical Scheffler dominance we've grown accustomed to. Just give us at least a 1-under par opening round, Scottie.