It's crunch time on the PGA Tour. The 3M Open in Blaine, Minnesota, this week marks one of the final opportunities players have to work their way onto the right side of the FedEx Cup Playoff bubble. For some, simply making the cut at TPC Twin Cities this week could make all the difference.
Gone are the days when the top 125 players in the standings would make golf's postseason. Instead, it's only the top 70 players now who, at the conclusion of next week's Wyndham Championship—the final regular-season event—will make the journey to Memphis for the first event of this year's playoffs. All of that only ramps up the pressure on those who teed it up at this year's 3M Open on Thursday.
Nobody made a bigger move early on at the 3M Open than Canadian Adam Svensson, whose blistering opening round of 11-under 60 set the new course record at TPC Twin Cities. Svensson, who found himself well outside of the playoff picture at the beginning of the week, would vault up 100 spots and into the playoffs should he go on to lift the trophy come Sunday evening.
Other early movers included Matti Schmid, Emiliano Grillo, and Chris Kirk, who each joined Svensson by getting off to fast starts this week in Minnesota. But while some thrived in the early going, others floundered and left themselves in a precarious position ahead of the cut at the season's penultimate event.
How many players will make the cut this week at TPC Twin Cities, though? Let's take a look at the 2025 3M Open cut rules, some of the historic cut lines, and the latest projections to try and determine what this year's cut might be.
3M Open cut rules: How many players make the cut?
Outside of most Signature Events on the PGA Tour this season and the upcoming FedEx Cup Playoff events, the 3M Open follows in the footsteps of the majority of events on the schedule with this week's 156-man field being reduced to the top 65 players and ties after 36 holes.
This differs from what we saw at last week's Open Championship, where the top 70 players and ties played the weekend at Royal Portrush.
Historic 3M Open cut lines: What has the cut line previously been at the 3M Open?
Last year's 3M Open, won by Jhonattan Vegas at 17-under, saw a cut line of -2 at TPC Twin Cities. Here is a look at each of the last five editions of the 3M Open and its historic cut lines.
Year | Cut Line |
|---|---|
2024 | -2 |
2023 | -3 |
2022 | +2 |
2021 | -1 |
2020 | -1 |
The 3M Open has produced a cut line under par on four of the last five occasions, with the exception coming in 2022 when the cut settled at +2. Looking back even further, this event has witnessed a cut line under par on all but one occasion, with the inaugural playing of the 3M Open in 2019 also featuring a cut line of 2-under.
3M Open cut line projection: What will the cut be in 2025?
With so many fantastic scores produced by Svensson and others in the early part of this year's 3M Open, an under-par cut line is looking increasingly likely once again. As things stand, an incredible 5-under par is the current mark with Data Golf giving the number more than a 40% chance of coming to fruition.
For what would be the sixth time in the last seven editions of the 3M Open, the cut line would come in under par, with -5 being the lowest cut at TPC Twin Cities to date. Of course, with plenty of birdie opportunities out there, that number could still grow to 6-under, an outcome that is being given around a 30% probability. Meanwhile, the number falling back to 4-under is only being given around a 19% chance.
While the current cut line projection would spell good news for players like Max Homa, it would leave players including Keith Mitchell, Adam Scott, Tom Kim, and others currently on the outside looking in; an outcome which might not only end their hopes for this week but also their dreams of making this year's playoffs. Of course, there is still time for all of that to change once again.