6. Sungjae Im
The best finisher from my picks at Torrey Pines, everything I said about Sungjae then still holds true now. Much like his fellow countryman Si Woo Kim, Im's approach game gets better the further that he is from the hole. Another good tool I like to use is looking at similar courses on Tour to the current slate, and two courses on Tour that are considered very similar by Data Golf are the Nicklaus Tournament Course played at the American Express, and Bay Hill. In 18 events on these three courses, Im has finished outside of the top 25 only three times in his career. If the pattern for Im's finishes to start the year continues, pencil him in for a Top 5 finish this week.
5. Justin Thomas
Thomas took a bit of a pause on his current hot streak with his putter last week at Pebble Beach, and the tough conditions that led to a 74 kept Thomas from doing anything of note. However, the greatest compliment I can give Thomas for this week is that it's shocking he doesn't have a win at TPC Scottsdale yet. Dating back to 2018, Thomas hasn't finished worse than T17 at the Phoenix Open, with a solo 3rd and a solo 4th in that span. I feel confident in saying that Justin Thomas will win a tournament in 2025, so why not do it in front of a raucous crowd in Scottsdale?
4. Sam Burns
Is Sam Burns the least talked about top-25 player in the world (if we're being super honest, it's actually Russell Henley who is 14TH??? HOW DID THIS HAPPEN???)? I think Burns is the perfect under-the-radar pick for most of these events because he's a really good player who is probably unlucky that he's playing at the same time as guys like Scottie, Rory, Xander, etc. who make it tough for a lot of those second-tier guys to rack up wins. However, these guys do break through for wins, and Sam Burns seems primed to end his winless stretch.