With The Players Championship comes four days of high-risk, high-reward golf and a closing stretch on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass where anything could happen.
Yes, the 137-yard, par-3 17th hole at Pete Dye's design, which features the famous island green, is the big draw here and will serve as the backdrop of every telecast and highlight show. There's also a replica in the Players Village for spectators to try out if they so choose.
But while most of the attention is placed on the 17th, the 16th and 18th have long been incredibly underrated, as anything could happen over those two holes as well.
The 16th is a 523-yard par 5 with water off the right side of the green, and the 18th hole is a 462-yard par 4 with water on the left and trees on the right.
Rain has already been a factor early this week in Ponte Vedra Beach, and it looks as if players will have to contend with windy conditions as the tourney progresses.
With the 17th green sitting approximately 2,880 yards from the Atlantic Ocean, here's what the Weather Channel says the field will be facing at the PGA Tour's flagship event:
- Thursday: 9 mph winds out of the southwest
- Friday: 10 mph winds out of the northeast
- Saturday: 20 mph winds out of the southeast
- Sunday: 17 mph winds out of the south
Let's break this down hole by hole.
No. 16: Par 5, 523 yards
Expect a lot of good tee shots on Thursday, as the wind will help players turn balls around the corner on the dogleg left.
A hole location on the front-left or back-left will favor players who execute approach shots, but players going for the green in two might have to perilously start shots over the water.
Wind may push shots toward the natural bailout left of the green, with those players having tough up- and-downs. If it were me, I would use the back-left hole location.
The exact opposite wind will greet the players on Friday. It'll be tough to keep tee shots on the right side of the fairway, as the wind will attempt to push balls into the right rough.
Approach shots will be less risky, as players can aim left of the water and let the wind push them around the water to the green. I'd like to see the Tour use a front-left hole location here.
The 16th hole looks dead into the wind—the strongest winds of the week—on Saturday, and I expect a lot of layups. The best hole location to me is middle-right, but since the Tour seems to like this location for Sundays, middle-left would be the second-best option.
Sunday’s final round is like Thursday in that players can use the wind to help turn their tee shots around the corner. The difference is the wind will also be in their face.
The same right-to-left headwind will greet the players for the approach shots. The Tour has seemingly always used a middle-right pin on Sundays, and while that would certainly generate birdies, a better risk-reward flag, I think, is middle-left.
Let's move on to the famous 17th.
No. 17: Par 3, 137 yards
Thursday’s opening round will see a left-to-right wind. The easiest hole location for this wind would be back-right, but the Tour usually saves that location for Sunday.
The toughest location for me and what I would use is front-left, as players would have to either start their wedge shots at the water or try to work something into the wind. The Tour might also try back-left to potentially bring the back of the green into play and to use that section before it gets worn out with foot traffic.
Friday’s second round will see a right-to-left wind. The easiest location is the front left of the green. as players can aim at the middle of the green—safely away from the water—and let the wind and contours bring the ball toward the hole.
I like the traditional Sunday spot in the back-right for Friday, as it makes players commit to a shot. A back-center hole location would be a challenging alternative and what I would use.
Saturday’s third round will see players playing a straight-downwind tee shot, amd a front hole location would be the most challenging.
Players would have to commit to how aggressive they wanted to be in challenging the water in the front. There is some amount of backstop behind the hole to serve as a minor bailout. The easiest hole location is in the back of the green, as players could hit lower shots, aided by the wind, to skip back to the hole location.
Sunday’s final-round forecast would see players hitting tee shots downwind again but with a left-to-right direction. Unlike Thursday, wind will help players get closer to the far-right hole location, but they cannot aim as far left. I could see a lot of players finding the bunker on Sunday.
Now, let's have a look at the finisher.
No. 18: Par 4, 462 yards
Thursday is shaping up to be the toughest day for tee shots of the week at the 18th, as most can already reach the grove of trees up the right side and will be further in play with the wind pushing the ball in that direction.
I could see some players hitting less than driver off the tee, especially those who naturally play a left-to-right ball flight. I like a middle or middle-back-right hole location.
Friday looks like the easiest day for tee shots into a right-to-left wind.
Depending on the player and the wind speed itself, players might be able to aim at the right trees and let the wind naturally turn the ball back to the fairway or slow the ball down enough to stop short of the trees.
I like a middle-left hole location in this wind direction, as players could work the ball along the ground or use the slopes on the green to stop it near the hole.
Saturday is straight downwind. Expect a lot of good tee shots, as players can bomb the ball as far and as straight as they wish. A back-center hole location appears to be one of the easiest locations, and what I would use, but players would have to make sure they don't go over the green.
The winner on Sunday plays the 72nd hole mostly downwind again but with a little left-to-right wind. That slight bit of aiming left should get players’ attention not to go too far left and not to reach the trees on the right.
I expect many good tee shots here, but not as many as Saturday. The front-left location seems like the best spot for both drama and risk-reward.